摘要
南京市气候变化较敏感,受亚热带季风气候影响,近年来短历时强降雨等极端天气增多,研究南京市降水变化特征对水资源规划管理有重要意义。基于南京站1951~2013年逐日降水资料,分别采用5年滑动平均法、线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall法、Morlet小波分析法和R/S分析法,分析了南京市降水量年际、年内四季变化特征。结果表明：南京市年降水量呈增加趋势,存在2、7、9、17年4个主周期,未来年降水量将呈减小趋势;春季降水量呈减小趋势,存在4、6、16年3个主周期,未来春季降水量将继续减少;夏季降水量呈显著增加趋势,存在4、9、18年3个主周期,未来夏季降水量将继续增加;秋季降水量呈减小趋势,存在3~5、8、12~13、21年4个主周期,未来秋季降水量将继续减少;冬季降水量呈增加趋势,存在5、12~13、18~19年3个主周期,未来冬季降水量将继续增加。
Due to the influence of subtropical monsoon, Nanjing is very sensitive to changing climate. In recent years, Nanjing has experienced booming short duration of heavy rains and other extreme weather. Hence, the study on the char- acteristics of precipitation variation is of great importance for planning and management of water resources. According to the daily precipitation data of Nanjing meteorological station from 1951 to 2013, the inter-annual and seasonal variation characteristics of precipitation were obtained by using the five years moving-average method, linear tendency method, Mann-Kendall method, morlet wavelet analysis method and R/S analysis method. The results show that the annualpre- cipitation of Nanjing City appears upward trend, and the main cycles of annual precipitation are 2a, 7a, 9a and 17a, and in the future the annual precipitation will decrease. The precipitation in spring appears downward trend, and the main cy- cles of precipitation in spring are 4a, 6a and 16 a, the precipitation will maintain an decreasing trend in the future. The precipitation in summer appears a significant upward trend, and the main cycles of precipitation in summer are 4a, 9a and 18a, and in the future the precipitation will increase. The precipitation in autumn appears downward trend, and the main cycles of precipitation in autumn are 3-5a, 8a, 12-13a and 21a, the precipitation will decrease in the future. The precipita- tion in winter appears upward trend, and the main cycles of precipitation !n winter are 5a, 12-13a and 18-19a, and in the future the precipitation will keep an increasing trend.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2015年第5期9-13,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201201018)
作者简介
尹娅婷（1989-），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为金融政策，E-mail：492139593@qq．com
