摘要
采用线性回归方法和Mann-Kendall方法对1961-2010年中国和十大流域水分盈亏量的气候及变化趋势特征进行分析,并对各流域年水分盈亏量变化成因进行探讨。结果表明:1中国多年平均年水分盈亏量(1961-2010年平均)为负值,水分条件表现为亏缺。空间分布总体呈现南方盈余,向北向西水分亏缺态势。2中国水分盈亏量月变化特征表现为夏季6-8月有盈余,7月盈余量最大;其余各月为亏缺,4月亏缺量最大,十大流域月变化特征各有不同。31961-2010年,中国年水分亏缺量呈现多—少—多变化态势,1990s亏缺量为近50年来最少。2000s中国水分亏缺量较常年偏多,主要是由于大多数流域水分亏缺量偏多或盈余量偏少造成的。4近50年来,全国平均年和春夏冬三季水分盈亏量呈现增加趋势,秋季减少趋势显著。5松花江、辽河、海河、黄河流域及西南诸河年水分盈亏量呈现减少趋势,除西南诸河是由于年降水量增加速率小于蒸散量增加速率导致其减少趋势外,其它四个流域则是由于年降水量减少速率大于潜在蒸散量减少速率,年降水量减少变化趋势起主要作用;其余流域年水分盈亏量呈现增加趋势,淮河和长江流域主要是因为潜在蒸散量减少速率大于降水的减少速率,潜在蒸散量的减少变化趋势起主要作用,东南诸河、西北诸河、珠江流域由于年降水量增加、潜在蒸散量减少,二者均对水分盈亏量增加有利。
In this paper, linear regression and Mann-Kendall methods are used to examine the climate trend characteristics of annual water surplus and deficit and their causes in the 10 major fiver basins over China during 1961-2010. The results showed that： （1） The mean annual water surplus and deficit in China during 1961-2010 was negative and the water condition was deficient. The spatial pattern of normal values shows surplus in the south and deficit in the north and west parts of China. （2） The normal monthly values of water surplus and deficit across China show surplus from June to August and deficit in other months. The most surplus was observed in July and the most deficit in April. Different monthly variations were found in each fiver basin. （3） Decadal variation of annual water surplus and deficit of China shows the feature of more-less-more than normal. The deficit of the 1990s was the least in the past 50 years. In the 2000s, the water deficits of China were more than normal, which was mainly caused by more deficit and less surplus in most of the river basins. （4） Annual, spring, summer and winter water surplus and deficit of China increased during 1961-2010 and the water condition became better, while it decreased significantly in autumn. （5） In the basins of Songhua River, Liaohe River, Haihe River, Yellow River and river basins of Southwest China, the annual water surplus and deficit showed a decreasing trend. For the four major river basins, the decreasing rate of annual precipitation was greater than that of annual potential evapotranspiration, and the decreasing annual precipitation played a great role in these regions. But in fiver basins of Southwest China, the increasing rate of annual precipitation was less than that of annual potential evapotranspiration, which led to a reduction of water availability. In the Huaihe and Yangtze fiver basins, the decreasing rate of annual evapotranspiration was greater than that of annual precipitation, which resulted in an uptrend of annual water surplus and deficit. In fiver basins of Southeast China, Pearl River Basin and fiver basins of Northwest China, the increase in annual precipitation and decrease in annual evapotranspiration are both beneficial to water increase.
出处
《地理学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第3期380-391,共12页
Acta Geographica Sinica
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2012CB955903)
公益性行业(气象)专项(GYHY201106018)~~
关键词
水分盈亏
十大流域
变化趋势
中国
water surplus and deficit
10 major river basins, trend
China
作者简介
高歌（1972-），女，正研级高工，主要从事气象灾害评估及气候影响评价工作。E-mail：gaoge@cma．gov．cn
