摘要
针对大型地下厂房施工影响因素众多、关系复杂的问题,从影响每个工序时间的风险事件出发,量化风险事件,建立耦合风险因素的地下厂房施工进度仿真模型,突破了地下厂房施工进度仿真传统模型中以工程整体为对象进行风险识别的不足,能够从工序底层考虑风险因素对施工工期的影响。进一步结合蒙特卡罗模拟方法,实现了耦合风险因素的地下厂房施工进度仿真计算与优化控制分析。工程实例分析表明,该方法不仅可计算考虑各种不确定风险因素下的大型地下厂房施工工期,而且能够深入分析工程进度对关键风险因素的敏感性,可为工程风险的防范和施工进度的控制分析提供依据。
The construction of large-scale underground powerhouse is very complicated and easily attected by risk events. The current methods for analyzing the risks are based on the whole construction, while the risk events directly attect the stages of production. In order to consider the influence of risk events, the integrated risk-scheduling model of large-scale underground powerhouse was established. Further, the process of risk-driven construction scheduling and optimal controlling was introduced by combining the Monte-Carlo method. The results, based on engineering examples, show that that the proposed method can not only calculate the construction schedule of large-scale underground powerhouse with many risk lectors, but also achieve in-depth analysis of the sensitivity of key risk lectors to the construction schedule. The simulation results can provide ettective support to the prevention of project risks and the control of construction schedule.
出处
《水利水电科技进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第5期39-44,共6页
Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金(51379006)
国家创新研究群体科学基金(51021004)
教育部新世纪优秀人才计划(NCET-12-0404)
关键词
水电站
地下厂房
施工进度仿真
风险控制
蒙特卡罗方法
敏感性分析
hydropower station
underground powerhouse
construction schedule simulation
risk control
Monte-Carlomethod
sensitivity analysis
作者简介
（1979-），男，湖北仙桃人，副教授，博士，主要从事水利水电工程仿真分析研究。E-mail：hnc@tju．edu．cn
