摘要
针对水电工程地下洞室群施工进度风险存在传递问题,提出了基于解释结构模型(ISM)和系统动力学(SD)的地下洞室群施工进度风险传递路径分析方法。根据地下洞室群的施工特点,建立了地下洞室群施工进度风险指标体系;结合风险传递机理,运用解释结构模型分析风险因素间传递关系,建立了风险因素传递矩阵,并总结归纳出风险因素关系对照表,通过系统动力学分析风险因素间传递路径,揭示了施工进度风险传递路径网络;集成ISM-SD构建了地下洞室群施工进度风险传递路径分析模型,并结合西南地区某大型水电站地下洞室群工程进行分析。结果表明,该方法可有效识别施工进度风险重要因素和关键传递路径,为地下洞室群施工进度风险管理提供了决策依据。
In view of the transfer phenomenon of construction schedule risk in underground cavern group of hydropower project,a risk transfer route analysis method for underground cavern group construction schedule based on Interpretative Structural Modelling Method(ISM)and System Dynamics(SD)is proposed.According to the construction characteristics of underground cavern group,the construction schedule risk index system of underground cavern group was established.Combined with the risk transfer mechanism,the transfer relationship among factors was analyzed by using ISM,and the risk factor transfer matrix was established.Then the risk factor relation comparison table was summarized.The transfer path between risk factors was analyzed through SD,and the risk transfer path network of construction schedule was revealed.The integrated ISM-SD was applied to construct a risk transfer route analysis model of underground cavern group construction schedule.Finally,a large-scale hydropower station underground cavern group project in southwest China was analyzed by the method.The results show that this method can identify the important factors and key transfer routes of construction schedule risk,which provides decision-making basis for the risk management of underground cavern group construction schedule.
作者
黄建文
谭永祎
陈梦媛
王兴霞
姜海龙
江谊园
HUANG Jian-wen;TAN Yong-yi;CHEN Meng-yuan;WANG Xing-xia;JIANG Hai-long;JIANG Yi-yuan(College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering;b.Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;China Energy Engineering Group Yunnan Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650051,China;China Gezhouba Group Three Gorges Construction Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443002,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2024年第1期93-97,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51879147,52009069)
水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室开放基金项目(2019KSD03)。
作者简介
黄建文(1977-),男,博士、教授、博导,研究方向为施工组织管理与系统仿真,E-mail:jwhuang@ctgu.edu.cn;通讯作者:王兴霞(1980-),女,博士、副教授、硕导,研究方向为水电工程施工技术,E-mail:wangxingxia1980@126.com。
