摘要
介绍了水利水电工程项目中一些常用的风险分析方法,分析了各种方法的优缺点,同时结合水利水电工程的特点,提出了一种将风险影响图和蒙特卡罗模拟相结合的动态风险分析方法,并通过实例论证了该方法的有效性。最后指出了在水利水电工程项目建设中,风险分析研究的方向。
This paper introduced some risk analysis methods in water resource project and analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of these methods.Combining with the unique feature of water resource project,a dynamic risk analysis method based on risk influence diagram and Monte Carlo simulation was presented.And the validity of this method was demonstrated through an example.At the end of the paper,the research direction of risk analysis method in water resource project construction was pointed out.
出处
《河北工程技术高等专科学校学报》
2004年第3期1-6,21,共7页
Journal of Hebei Engineering and Technical College Quarterly
关键词
风险分析
风险影响图
蒙特卡罗模拟
risk analysis
risk influence diagram
Monte Carlo simulation
