摘要
基于农业物质投入的五个方面：化肥、农膜、农药、农用柴油及农村用电，利用农业碳排放量估算模型，计算吉林省1993～2011年的农业碳排放量，分析农业碳排放总量、组成结构以及农业碳排放强度的动态变化，结果表明：吉林省农业碳排放总量变化分为三个阶段：第一个稳步增长阶段、波动增长阶段、第二个稳步增长阶段；农业碳排放总量的组成结构保持不变，依次是化肥、农村用电、农膜、柴油、农药碳排放量；农业碳排放强度从1993年的369．2574kg／hm2升高到2011年的711．7935kg／hm2，其与人均GDP的EKC曲线呈二次曲线的左半部分．预计2018年将达到转折点。灰色预测模型显示：2012。2021年．吉林省农业碳排放总量将由3．758742x10~增加至5．892296x10~．吉林省必须采取实施切实有效的措施，改变现有的农业生产发展模式．改善农业生产结构。加强农业科学技术发展。
Based on the five aspects of agricultural material inputs which include chemical fertilizer, agricultural film, agricultural pesticide, agricultural diesel oil, rural electricity, agricultural carbon emissions are obtained by using the estimation model of agricultural carbon emissions from 1993 to 2011 in Jilin Province, and the total agricultural carbon emissions, structure of composition and the intensity of carbon emission, are analyzed. The result indicates that the change of total agricultural carbon emissions in Jilin Province is divided into three stages which include the first stage of steady growth, the stage of fluctuating growth and the second stage of steady growth; the structure of total agricultural carbon emissions kept unchanged that followed by chemical fertilizer, rural electricity, agricultural film, agricultural diesel oil and agricultural pesticide; The intensity of carbon emission increased from 369.2574kg/hm2 to 711.7935kg/hm2 between 1993 and 2011, and its EKC shows the left half part of the ＂inverted U＂ shape, the turning point will appear in 2018. The gray prediction model shows the total agricultural carbon emissions will increase from 375.8742×10^4t to 589.2296×10^4t between 2012 and 2021 in Jilin Province. Therefore, Jilin Province must take effective measures to change the development mode of agricultural production.
出处
《中国农机化学报》
北大核心
2014年第1期310-315,共6页
Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization
基金
吉林省教育厅科技研究项目(吉教科合字(2013)第391号)
吉林省科技发展计划项目(20120408)
国家自然科学基金(41071388)
关键词
农业碳排放
环境库兹涅茨曲线
灰色预测
吉林省
agricultural carbon emissions
environmental Kuznets curve
gray prediction
Jilin Province
作者简介
高标，1980年生，男，吉林白城人，讲师，硕士；研究方向为区域环境保护与可持续发展。E-mail：niatgb@126．com
通讯作者：许清涛，1965年生，男，回族，吉林伊通人，教授；研究方向为资源环境与可持续发展。
