摘要
基于生态足迹模型,以白城市为例,计算了2003-2013年人均生态足迹与人均生态承载力,分析了其动态变化,结合生态赤字(盈余)、万元GDP生态足迹评价了白城市可持续发展状况,结果表明:2003-2013年,白城市人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力分别由1.3929hm2/人、1.7853hm2/人增加到2.9670hm2/人、3.0646hm2/人.人均生态足迹增速大于人均生态承载力,生态盈余呈逐渐减小状态,由0.3924hm2/人减小至0.0976hm2/人,在2012年出现生态赤字0.0468hm2/人,可持续发展状况开始恶化,万元GDP生态足迹整体呈现下降走势,资源利用效率逐渐升高.基于GM(1,1)灰色模型构建了白城市人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力预测模型,预测结果表明:2014-2020年人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力分别由3.4939hm2/人、3.4470hm2/人增加到6.0580hm2/人、4.8413hm2/人,生态赤字由0.0469hm2/人增加到1.5811hm2/人.
Based on the ecological footprint models,ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacit per capita of Baicheng City were calculated,and their dynamic changes from 2003 to 2013 were analyzed. Th state of sustainable development in Baicheng City was evaluated by the data of ecological deficit( surplus) an ecological footprint per 10 000 RMB GDP. The results indicated that the ecological footprint per capita and th ecological capacity per capita increased from 1. 3929hm2 per capita and 1. 7853hm2 per capita in 2003 to 29670hm2 per capita and 3. 0646hm2 per capita in 2013,respectively. In the same period,the ecological surplu decreased from 0. 3924hm2 per capita in 2003 to 0. 0976hm2 per capita because the growth of the former wa greater than that of the latter,and the ecological deficit appeared in 2012,of which the value was 0. 0468 hm per capita,the state of sustainable development began to deteriorate. The ecological footprint per 10 000 RM GDP presented a downward trend as a whole and the efficiency of resource utilization showed gradua lincrease The prediction models of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita were constructed base on GM( 1,1) grey model,the gray prediction model shows the ecological footprint per capita will increase from3. 4939hm2 per capita in 2014 to 6. 0580hm2 per capita in 2020 in Baicheng City. In the same period,the eco logical capacity per capita will increase from 3. 4470hm2 per capita to 4. 8413hm2 per capita,so the ecologica deficit will increase from 0. 0469hm2 per capita to 1. 5811hm2 per capita.
出处
《白城师范学院学报》
2016年第2期1-9,共9页
Journal of Baicheng Normal University
基金
吉林省教育厅科技研究项目(吉教科合字(2013)第391号)
吉林省科技发展计划项目(20120408)
关键词
生态足迹
可持续发展
灰色预测
生态承载力
生态赤字
白城市
ecological footprint
sustainable development
gray prediction
ecological capacity
ecological deficit
Baicheng City
