摘要
结合IPCC经典碳排放计算理论,基于《白城市统计年鉴》的基础数据,从农业总体物质投入、水稻种植、畜牧养殖三个方面入手,对白城市的农业碳排放进行计算,分析动态变化过程。基于灰色预测的自然增长情景与基于低碳发展的碳约束情景的比较研究,分析白城市农业碳减排潜力,结果表明:自然增长条件下,2020年白城市农业碳排放量及其强度将分别增加到6.245×10~6t、4.856t/hm^2;碳排放约束情景下,2020年的农业碳排放强度减小到2.997t/hm^2,农业碳排放量将减少到3.854×10~6t,2014~2020年,共累计可减排8.957×10~6t。白城市在未来的一段时间内,其农业碳排放量及其强度将有进一步增长的空间,但白城市农业碳排放的碳减排潜力是非常巨大的,因此,未来白城市在农业经济发展过程中应大力采取低碳减排措施,加大农业碳减排力度。
Based on the basic data from Statistical Yearbook of Baicheng City,this study adopts classic IPCC carbon emission calculation theory,focuses on the three aspects of overall agricultural material inputs,rice cultivation and livestock breeding,calculates the agricultural carbon emission in Baicheng City,and analyzes its dynamic process of changes.The timing variation of agricultural carbon emission in Baicheng City was divided into three phases：slow-growth phase → rapid-growth phase → fluctuation phase,showing a continuous growth.The carbon emission increased from 2.366×10^6tons in 1999 to 4.446×10^6tons in 2013,the agricultural carbon emission intensity first went up and then down,with the maximum 6.192t/hm2 in 2008.The structure analysis results showed that fertilizer,rice cultivation,cattle breeding and sheep breeding had taken up a large proportion among agricultural material inputs,but also the growth of fertilizer and rice cultivation were more active growth factors.EKC（environmental Kuznets curve）analysis results showed the EKC of agricultural carbon emission,its intensity in Baicheng City had presented quadratic and cubic curve respectively,being in line with the inverted＂U＂shape from the classic EKC hypothesis,the turning points appeared in 2008 and 2012respectively.Based on comparative study between the grey prediction of natural growth scenario and the low carbon development of carbon constrained scenarios,the carbon emission reduction potential of Baicheng City was analyzed,the results showed the agricultural carbon emission and its intensity in 2020 would increase respectively to 6.245×10^6tons and 4.856t/hm2 under the condition of natural growth.However,in response to carbon emission constraints,the agricultural carbon emission and its intensity in 2020 would be reduced respectively to 3.854×10^6tons and 2.997t/hm2,the grand total reduction would be 8.957×10^6tons in 2014～2020.In the next period of time,the agricultural carbon emission and its intensity of Baicheng City will be further growth space,but its carbon emission reduction potential is very huge.Therefore,Baicheng City should vigorously adopt low carbon emission reduction measures and increase the intensity of agricultural emission reduction in the process of agricultural economic development in the future.
出处
《中国农机化学报》
2016年第9期195-203,共9页
Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization
基金
吉林省教育厅科技研究项目(吉教科合字(2014)第561号)
吉林省科技发展计划项目(20120408)
关键词
农业碳排放
环境库兹涅茨曲线
碳减排
灰色预测
白城市
agricultural carbon emissions
environmental Kuznets curve
carbon emission reduction
grey prediction
Baicheng City
作者简介
高标，男，1980年生，吉林白城人，博士研究生，副教授；研究方向为土地利用与生态环境。E—mail：niatgb@126．com
通讯作者：卢晓玲，女，1973年生，吉林白城人，教授；研究方向为区域农业生态环境建设。E-mail：lxl7302@163．com
