摘要
本文研究分析师在进行上市公司盈余预测时,是否会受到上市公司高管证券从业背景的影响。我们把对同一个上市公司进行盈余预测的分析师分为两类,一类分析师为该上市公司高管曾经或正在此类分析师所在的证券公司工作,称为关联分析师,另一类分析师不存在这种关联关系,称为非关联分析师。结果发现,同非关联分析师相比,关联分析师盈余预测精确度更低,更容易高估公司盈余。这说明关联分析师违背独立性,做出有利于上市公司的盈余预测。我们进一步探讨不同上市公司中影响关联分析师与非关联分析师盈余预测差异大小的因素,结果发现,公司规模与该差异负相关;非国有公司的该项差异大于国有公司;非国有公司的规模越大,该项差异越小,说明关联分析师更倾向于高估小规模公司和非国有公司。另外研究发现,该项差异同负债正相关,同盈余异常正相关,说明关联分析师更倾向于高估不确定性强的公司。
The paper investigates whether the analyst＇s earnings prediction can be influenced by the senior managers＇ working background in stock firms. We divide the analysts who predict the same listed company into two groups. The first one is called related analysts whose senior managers used to work or are working in the analysts＇ stock firm, while the second one who has no of this kind of relationship is called non-related analysts. The results show that the related analysts predict earnings less accuracy than the non-related analysts, and more easily to get higher earnings prediction, that is to say, related analysts obey the independency nile, and help the listed firms to get benefit prediction. We also explore the factors that lead to the difference of earnings predication between the related analysts and non-related analysts among different firnls and find that firm size is negatively related to the difference and for the non-government controlled firms, size is also negatively related to the difference, which means that related analysts tend to overestimate those small and non-government controlled firms. At last, we find the difference is positively related to the leverage and earning surplus, which shows that related analysts are more inclined to overestimate the earnings of the firms with uncertainty.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第6期112-123,共12页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目"中国证券分析师行为研究"(项目批准号:70702002)
"会计准则变更
公司行为选择和证券市场反应"(项目批准号:70802003)资助
关键词
高管
证券背景
分析师预测
senior manager, stock brokerage firms background, analysts＇ prediction
作者简介
宋乐（1981-），男，北京大学光华管理学院博士生。
张然（1977-），女，北京大学光华管理学院副教授。
