摘要
目的运用广义增长平衡法（GGB）和综合绝世后代法（SEG）估计1991—1998年全国综合疾病监测系统（DsP）的居民漏报水平。方法分别采用以上两种方法对DSP1991—1998年居民分年龄别漏报率进行估计，其中GGB法是通过以死亡率为自变量，以进入率和增长率差值为应变量拟合一元线性方程，即n^＊（x）-r^＊（x＋）=[ln（k1/k2）]/t＋[（k1k2）^0.5/c]d^＊（x＋）；SEG法通过2000年人口普查计算的85岁期望寿命值及公式N（x）=∫x^∞D（a）·exp[∫x^a r（u）du]d（a）来计算。绘制散点图判断分年龄别漏报情况，最后根据计算出的漏报率，对各年龄别死亡率进行漏报校正。结果采用GGB法得出1998年人口相对于1991年上报的人口完整性为87．29％，1991～1998年死亡漏报率为11．7％，各年龄别的漏报程度不高；而采用SEG法得出1991—1998年DSP数据报告的漏报率为48．0％，而且随着年龄别的上升，报告漏报率呈显著下降趋势。结论GGB法和SEG法较常用的漏报调查方法节约了成本、可以估计一段时期内的平均漏报水平，并且GGB法可以同时估计一段时期内人口的相对完整性和死亡漏报情况，但是其自身也有局限性。采用SEG法和GGB法计算的结果善异比较大．采用GGB=SEG两阶殷浃对DSP数据薪得了很好的而产漏耜估计．
Objective Using both general growth balance （GGB） and synthetic extinct generations （SEG） methods to evaluate the underreporting of deaths in disease surveillance points （DSP） from 1991 to 1998. Methods We used those two methods to estimate the underreport rate in DSP from 1991 -- 1998. According to GGB method, death rate and the difference between entry rate and growth rate were regarded as independent and dependent variable, respectively, to fit a one-dimensional linear equation n^＊ （x） - r^＊ （x ＋ ） = [ln （k1/k2） ]/t ＋ [ （k1/k2） ^0.5 /c] d^＊ （x＋ ）. About SEG method, it was calculated by life expectancy at age 85 of national census in 2000 and an equation N （x） = ∫x^∞D （a）. exp [ （∫x^a r （u） du ] d （a）. Then we drew scatter diagram to evaluate underreporting of average intercensal age -specific mortality rates, and made adjustment. Results By GGB method, the population count in 1998 was 87.29 percent as complete as the count in 1991. For the period of 1991 -- 1998, the number of underreporting of deaths was 11.7 percent. The underreporting of average intercensal age-specific mortality rates was not high. However, when SEG method was used, the underreport rate became 48.0 percent. The underreporting of average intercensal age-specific mortality rates decreased significantly from younger to older age groups. Conclusion GGB and SEG could reduce more cost than other underreporting-related survey, and evaluate the underreporting in a defined time period. GGB could also evaluate the underreporting rate of population and death. However, both these two methods had some limitations. There was big difference between the results when using SEG and GGB, suggesting that we should try to combine GGB and SEG methods to get the better results.
出处
《中华流行病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第9期927-932,共6页
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
基金
基金项目：北京市与中央高校共建项目（XK100230447）
关键词
疾病监测系统
漏报
广义增长平衡法
综合绝世后代法
Disease surveillance points
Underreport
General growth balance
Synthetic extinct generations
作者简介
通信作者：杨功焕，Email：yangghuan@vip．sina．com
