摘要
风电场输出功率预测对接入大量风电的电力系统运行有重要意义。该文综述国内外风电功率预测技术的研究现状、基本原理及预测方法;设计风电功率预测系统的框架,建立基于人工神经网络的风电功率预测系统,该系统即将应用于吉林电网调度中心。该系统以数值天气预报为基础,具有良好的人机界面,实现了与能量管理系统(energy management system,EMS)的无缝连接。对测试数据的预测结果表明,该预测系统能够可靠工作,预测结果的均方根误差在15%左右。最后,该文对风电功率预测系统的经济效益进行估算。
Wind power prediction is important to the operation of power system with comparatively large amount of wind power. A summarization of the research status, basic principle and forecast methods of wind power prediction was presented in the paper. The system framework was designed. A wind power prediction system based on artificial neural network was established, and the system will soon be applied in the Jilin power grid dispatch center. The system relies on numerical weather ~prediction, has friendly man-machine interface, and realizes seamless connection to the energy management system （EMS）. The results of the test data indicate that the prediction system is reliable and the root of mean square error （RMSE） is about 15%. The economic benefit of the forecasting system was also estimated.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第22期72-76,共5页
Power System Technology
关键词
风电
电网
预测
人工神经网络
数值天气预报
wind power
power grid
prediction
artificialneural network
numerical weather prediction
作者简介
范高锋（1977-），男，博士研究生，研究方向为电力系统分析及风电功率预测；
王伟胜（1968-），男，博士，教授级高级工程师，博士生导师，主要从事电力系统分析与风力发电领域的科研与教学工作，E—mail：wangws@epri．ac．cn.
刘纯（1968-），男，高级工程师，研究方向为电力系统分析及风力发电。
