摘要
【目的】对高致病性禽流感发生的风险进行评估,为该病制定科学有效的控制策略提供理论依据。【方法】首先,通过对已发生的高致病性禽流感相关资料的分析,结合已有的研究成果,确定高致病性禽流感发生的风险因素;然后通过改进现有对高致病性禽流感发生的风险评估方法——层次分析法,利用改进后的模糊层次分析法确定风险因素的权重;最后应用多指标综合评分法计算出风险概率,建立高致病性禽流感发生风险评估模型。【结果】将该模型对2008年春季我国各省份禽流感疫情发生情况的风险预警评估结果与今春实际情况进行对照检验,发现除了贵州省外,其它三个疫情发生省份在该模型的预警结果中都为高风险省份。【结论】该风险评估模型具有可行性和推广性,为各地在不同季节对高致病性禽流感的免疫预防工作提供一些参考建议。
[Objective] To assess the risk of the highly pathogenic avian influenza in China and provide theoretical basis for developing scientific and effective control strategies of the disease.[ Methods] Firstly, the risk factors of the highly pathogenic avian influenza were constructed by analyzing the epidemic data and referring to the existing research results. Secondly, a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process （FAHP） improved from analytical hierarchy process （AHP） was used to weigh risk factors. Finally a multi-index integrated assessment method was used to compute the probability of risk and establish the risk assessment model. [Result] Results of predicting the spread of this disease in China in the springtime of 2008 by the risk assessment model was compared with real data, and it was found that except Guizhou Province, the other three provinces where this disease actually happened was predicted as highly risky. [Conclusion] The risk assessment model established is feasible and can be generalized. It can be used to make some suggestions of immune prevention for any place in different seasons.
出处
《中山大学学报（医学科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第5期615-619,共5页
Journal of Sun Yat-Sen University:Medical Sciences
关键词
高致病性禽流感
风险因素
模糊层次分析法
多指标综合评分法
highly pathogenic avian influenza
risk factor
fuzzy analytical hierarchy process
multi-lndex integrated assessment method
作者简介
蓝泳铄（1984-），男，广东潮州人，在读硕士生，概率论与数理统计专业．E-mail：yosh_lan@163．com
