摘要
使用160个测站冬半年月平均气温资料,对中国最近几十年(1951/1952—2003/2004)的冬季气温变化趋向的气候特征进行分析。分析方法包括趋势分析、主分量分析。结果表明,中国冬季的前冬和后冬气温的变化存在明显的年际、年代际趋向性差异。趋向性差异在年际的变化方面的表现,中国南方地区冬季气温变化,最主要的特征是变化趋向的一致性,即前冬有变暖的趋向,后冬也有变暖的趋向,但是前冬变暖趋向不明显。而北方地区与南方地区有不同,表现在冬季气温变化,虽然也存在变暖趋向,但是前冬变暖的趋向比南方趋向明显。第2个气候变化特征,南方地区是前、后冬相反的变化趋向,即前冬暖(冷),后冬则冷(暖)。而北方地区这种特征表现不明显。趋向性差异在年代际的趋向性变化方面的表现更加明显。南方地区在1980年以前,前后冬的气温变化趋向都是下降的,但是后冬下降速度较前冬缓和,在1980年以后,前后冬的气温变化趋向都是上升的,但是后冬上升速度也较前冬缓和。而北方地区在1980年以前,前后冬的气温变化趋向同样都是下降的,但是后冬下降速度较前冬加快,而在1980年以后,前后冬的气温变化趋向都是上升的,但是后冬上升速度也较前冬加快。不同的前冬和后冬气温序列不同时段标准化距平的平均值也存在差异。南方地区1980年以前,大部分地区,气温均比常年偏低。但是后冬偏低程度较前冬缓和,而在1980年以后,气温均比常年偏高,后冬偏高的程度也较前冬缓和。而北方地区在1980年以前,冬半年气温均比常年偏低,后冬气温偏低的程度较前冬大。而在1980年以后,冬半年气温均比常年偏高,而且后冬偏高的程度较前冬大。
Using the monthly temperature data at 160 meteorological stations in China, we study the trends in winter surface temperatures in the past few decades （1951/1952 -2003/2004）. The analysis method includes linear regression and principle component analysis. The results show that yearly and decadal temperature trends both displayed significant differences between early and late winter months.
On the inter-annual time scale, the most significant character of winter temperature variation in southern China is that temperature trends in early and late winter were consistent, that is, temperatures demonstrated a warming trend both in early and late winter, but with a weaker warming in early winter. However, in northern China, temperatures also demonstrated a warning trend for the whole winter, but the warming trend in early winter was stronger than its counterpart in southern China. The second character is that in southern China temperature trends in early and late winter were generally opposite, that is, a warming （cooling） in early winter always accompanied a cooling （warming） in late winter. There was no such obvious opposite trends in northern China.
On the decadal time scale, differences in temperature trends are more significant. In southern China, temperatures decreased both in early and late winter, with a milder decline in late winter before 1980, whereas increased both in early and late winter, also with a milder rise in late winter after 1980. On the contrary, in northern China, temperatures decreased in the whole winter, but with a rapider decline in late winter before 1980, and after 1980, temperatures increased in the whole winter, also with a rapider rise in late winter.
Differences in temperature variations were also manifested in mean values of normalized temperature anomalies in early and late winter over different periods. In southern China, winter temperatures were lower than normal, with a larger anomaly in early winter before 1980, and after 1980, winter temperatures were higher than normal, with a larger anomaly in early winter. On the contrary, in northern China, winter temperatures were lower than the long-term average with a larger anomaly in late winter before 1980, and after 1980, winter temperatures were higher than the long-term average, with a large anomaly in late winter.
出处
《气象学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第5期614-621,共8页
Acta Meteorologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目"使用全球气候模式研究冬季早期和晚期相反气候趋向"(40575031)
国家自然科学基金重点项目"北极平流层异常对亚洲及北太平洋地区的天气气候影响研究"(40533016)
关键词
气温变化
冷趋向
暖趋向.
Temperature variation, Cooling trend, Warming trend.
作者简介
黄嘉佑,教授,研究方向：气候与气候变化影响.E-mail：jy@pku.edu.cn
