摘要
利用中国东部375个测站1961—2006年地面气温资料,采用线性趋势分析、EOF、REOF、Mann-Kendall、小波分析等方法,分析了季风区春季的气候变暖特征。结果表明:季风区春季增温显著,近46 a增温率为0.25℃/(10 a)。从1989年开始增温,1996年有一次显著突变。以38°N为界,气温变化的稳定性是南部高于北部。增温率从南向北增大,增温不显著的区域主要在长江以南;根据EOF分析,该区春季气温异常可分为全区一致型、江南江北相反型、中原型3种常见分布模态。根据REOF又进一步将该区春季气温异常细分为中部、南部、北部3个区。全区性的前10个偏暖年,全部出现在1990年代以后。气温异常变化存在准4年和22年的周期,气温的转折北部比中、南部早,但北部从1990年代末期开始转为下降;北部区和中部区分别在1981、1997年发生了突变,南部突变不明显;蒙古高压是影响春季气温的主要大气活动中心,高压强度从1980年代后期以来有明显减弱趋势,造成入侵东部的偏北冷空气减弱,是春季气候变暖的可能机理。
Using the mean surface air temperature data over the years 1961—2006 of 375 stations in the monsoon area of East China and methods of linear regression analysis,multinomial fitting,EOF,REOF,Mann-Kendall,Glide T-examination and power spectrum analysis etc.,the authors analyzed the climate warming characteristic of the spring mean air temperature of the monsoon area in eastern China.The result shows as follows.The warming rate over the 46 years in this area is 0.25 ℃ /（10 a）.The air temperature began to increase in 1989 and there was a remarkable change in 1996.The stability of temperature change is higher south of 38 oN than north of it.According to EOF analysis,the warming rate increased from south to north.Regions where warming is not remarkable are mainly south of the Yangtze River.Using the EOF method,the abnormity of spring mean air temperature in this region is divided into three modes of common distribution： unanimous distribution in all parts of the region,opposite distribution across the Yangtze River and central plain distribution.Using the REOF method,the authors further divided the area into three subareas,i.e.,the middle,southern and northern areas.The all area top-ten warmest years are mostly in and after the 1990s.There are cycles of about 4 years and 22 years in anomalous change of air temperature.Spring temperature transition is earlier in the northern area than in the middle and southern areas,but the northern area started a temperature decrease from the end of the 1990s.The northern area had abrupt changes in 1981 and the middle area in 1997,while the southern area did not experience any remarkable change.The Mongolian high affects the spring temperature as a main center of atmospheric activity,with the intensity having an obvious tendency of weakening in the late 1980s,weakening the northerly cold air that has invaded the eastern part of the area and becoming a possible mechanism for the spring climate warming.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期606-613,共8页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
国家自然科学基金(40775057)资助
关键词
中国东部
季风区
春季
气温
变化特征
East China
monsoon area
spring temperature
variation characteristics
作者简介
通讯作者：陈少勇（1959-），男，甘肃省人。高级工程师，主要从事气候预测及相关研究工作。E-mail：csy505@tom．com.
