摘要
我国FDI与GDP增长之间的关系问题,一直是学术界探究的问题,FDI与GDP之间存在线性关系已是普遍的结论。然而,本质上FDI与GDP之间存在非线性关系,略去非线性关系,用线性模型还不能深刻揭示FDI对GDP增长的作用。本文应用韩得瑞(Hendry)倡导的“一般到特殊”方法建立了我国GDP—FDI非线性动力系统(CG-FNLDS)模型,其表明,我国GDP与FDI是相互推动的,但由于FDI内部发生阻塞现象,FDI具有增长极限。CG-FNLDS相图中具有一个稳定的结点吸引子,FDI最优规模为1116亿美元,最优的FDI/GDP值为2.95%,因而,目前进入我国的FDI还有一定的增长空间,但难以超过GDP速度增长,CG-FNLDS向结点运动过程正是其自我调节过程。进一步对CG-FNLDS进行最优控制时,可以把损失减少到最低限度,但从长远上我国还是要趁早采取有效措施增强我国GDP自主增长后劲。
The relationship between China's FDI and GDP growth has been an academic question. Although it has been a generally accepted conclusion that there exists a linear relationship between FDI and GDP, essentially there is a nonlinear connection between them: omitting their nonlinear relations, we cannot profoundly reveal the effect of FDI upon the FDI growth. Using the method of ' from the general to the particular' initiated by Hendry, we have formed for China's GDP-PDI relationship a CG-FNIDS model, which shows that China's GDP and FDI are interactive, and that FDI has a limitation in growth owing to the blockage within FDI. The CG-FNLDS diagram has a steady terminal attractor, the optimal scale of FDI being 111.6 billion US dollars and the optimal ratio between FDI and GDP being 2.95%. Therefore, there is more room at present for FDI to enter into China, but its growing rate is hard to exceed that of China's GDP. The course of CG-FNLDS moving to the nodal point is just the process of its self-adjustment. Further optimum control over CG-FNLDS may reduce the loss to the minimum, but in the long run, China had better adopt effective measures--before it is too late--to augment her staying-power of increasing GDP on her own.
出处
《管理世界》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第1期57-66,共10页
Journal of Management World
基金
南开大学跨国公司研究中心承担的教育部重大课题攻关项目<跨国公司与中国国际竞争力研究>(03JZD0019)的阶段成果
