摘要
森林碳汇的经济价值评估对推进林业碳汇发展和森林增汇目标实现具有重要意义。基于减排量核算模型和B-S期权定价理论,构建碳汇造林项目期权定价模型,并以2009-2029年黑龙江省十八站落叶松碳汇造林项目为例,对项目期权价值进行动态评估与敏感性分析。结果表明:在当前市场条件和技术条件下,该项目期权价值和单位面积期权价值分别为1545.122万元和4616元/hm^2;开发成本、签发成本、贴现率对项目期权价值存在负向影响,但影响程度较小,而碳汇价格对项目期权价值存在正向影响;运用B-S期权定价法核算碳汇项目价值既考虑了货币的时间价值,又可以将价值变动概率和无风险收益率的影响量化,相较传统方法而言更加科学合理。
Analysis on the economic value of forest carbon sequestration is of great significance to promote the development of forestry carbon sequestration and the realization of forests’sequestration increase targets.Based on the emission reduction accounting model and B-S option pricing theory,an option pricing model is constructed for the carbon sequestration afforestation project.Taking the Larix gmelini carbon sequestration project of Shibazhan forest business in Heilongjiang province during 2009-2029 as an example,the project option value and its sensitivity were evaluated dynamically.The results show that,under the current market conditions and technical conditions,the option value of the project and the option value per unit area are 154.5215 million Yuan and 4616 Yuan/ha,respectively.Besides,the development cost,issuance cost,and discount rate all have negative impacts on the project option value,but the impacts are not significant,while the carbon sink price has a positive impact.Using the B-S option pricing method in accounting for the value of carbon sequestration projects not only considers the time value of money,but also quantifies the impact of value change probability and risk-free rate of return,which is more scientific and reasonable than traditional methods.
作者
贯君
曹玉昆
朱震锋
邹玉友
GUAN Jun;CAO Yukun;ZHU Zhenfeng;ZOU Yuyou(College of Economics and Management,The Northeast Forest University,Harbin 150040,China)
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第1期63-70,共8页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(18GLD289
16GLB04)
黑龙江省科学基金项目(YQ2019G001)
中央高校基本科研业务项目(2572018BM07
2572017AC01)
国家林业和草原局林业软科学研究项目(2017-R18)资助.
关键词
森林碳汇
碳汇造林项目
B-S期权定价
落叶松
敏感性分析
forest carbon sequestration
carbon sequestration afforestation project
B-S option pricing
Larix gmelini
sensitivity analysis
作者简介
贯君(1989-),女,汉族,黑龙江哈尔滨人,博士,讲师,主要从事林业资源与环境管理研究。Email:guanjun_89@126.com;通讯作者:朱震锋(1987-),男,汉族,河南荥阳人,博士,讲师,主要从事林业经济理论与政策研究。E-mail:zzf_nefu@163.com
