摘要
美国对外贸易行为和政策逻辑是理解其国家利益运作规则和对外关系的最佳切入点。贸易权术是理解美国政治运作与经济外交的重要概念。贸易权术是在内外部影响因素作用下,国家行为体与非国家行为体基于各自政治经济目标,围绕贸易政策制定和贸易工具选择所进行的行为交互及其均衡结果。美国贸易权术是非线性的复杂自适应系统,通过局部或低尺度的自下而上的相互作用而涌现更高水平的贸易政策,传统牛顿范式下对简单线性均衡系统的分析方法已不适用,具有更高级组织哲学隐喻的复杂系统理论成为有效研究方法。美国贸易权术的复杂系统特征表现为非线性关联、不确定突变、多尺度涌现和自组织演化的辩证统一。美国贸易权术产生及演化是行为主体间及其与影响因素间复杂交互动态博弈的结果,行为主体包括总统、国会、利益集团等,影响因素可分为内隐因素、积发因素和诱发因素,这些要素通过积发型和诱发型涌现路径形成贸易政策。冷战后美国主导建立北美自由贸易协定、促成乌拉圭回合谈判、主导建立跨太平洋伙伴关系协定、挑起中美贸易摩擦等典型案例分析说明,从影响因素作用和行为主体交互的复杂系统理论视角,能够有效揭示美国贸易权术的演化逻辑。
The logic of US foreign trade behavior and policy is one of the best entry points for understanding the rules of its national interest and foreign relations.Trade statecraft is an important concept for understanding the operation of US politics and its economic diplomacy.Trade statecraft involves the interaction and equilibrium outcome of actions taken by state and non-state actors,influenced by internal and external factors,based on their respective political and economic objectives,centered around the formulation of trade policies and techniques.US trade statecraft is a nonlinear,complex adaptive system that emerges at a higher level of trade policy through local or low-scale,bottom-up interactions.The traditional Newtonian paradigm of analyzing simple linear equilibrium systems is no longer applicable.Theory of complex systems,with its advanced organizational philosophical metaphors,becomes an effective research methodology.The complex system characteristics of US trade statecraft are manifested in a dialectical unity of nonlinear correlation,uncertain mutations,multi-scale emergence,and self-organizing evolution.The emergence and evolution of US trade statecraft is the result of complex dynamic interactions and games between actors and influencing factors.The actors include the President,Congress,interest groups,etc.and the influencing factors can be divided into inherent,cumulative,and inducing factors.These elements form trade policies through cumulative and inducing emergent pathways.After the Cold War,US took the lead in establishing the North American Free Trade Agreement,facilitating the Uruguay Round negotiations,leading the establishment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement,and provoking Sino-US trade frictions.Analysis of these typical cases demonstrates that from the perspective of complex systems theory,focusing on influencing factors and the interaction of actors,the evolutionary logic of US trade statecraft can be effectively revealed.
出处
《国际观察》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期90-126,共37页
International Review
作者简介
韩梦雨,复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院博士研究生,上海,200433
