人民币何以成为货币锚?——基于汇改视角的直接形成渠道分析被引量：13

Why Could RMB Become the Anchor Currency?——An Analysis of Direct Formation Channels from the Perspective of Exchange Rate Formation Reforms

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摘要本文将货币锚模型中的非汇率变量与锚效应的关系由线性拓展为U形和倒U形,以我国2010年以后的四次汇改为结构性断点,采用Frankel经典货币锚模型测度人民币对44种货币的锚效应,并从直接形成渠道剖析人民币成为货币锚的机制。结果表明:第一,人民币总体上对44种货币存在显著的锚效应。第二,贸易开放渠道与人民币锚效应之间存在U形关系,资本开放渠道在不同汇改时段与锚效应分别存在U形和倒U形关系,官方储备渠道与锚效应存在倒U形关系。第三,初步放宽汇率浮动区间限制后,资本开放渠道和官方储备渠道能够促进人民币锚效应的形成,宽松的浮动区间有助于贸易开放渠道发挥作用。第四,汇率中间价市场化定价改革削弱了资本开放渠道和官方储备渠道的作用,降低了人民币锚效应,各渠道难以通过逆周期因子发挥作用。研究结果为推进汇率制度改革和提升人民币国际影响力提供了参考依据。 The exchange rates of global currencies have fluctuated frequently and widely after the financial crisis in2008,thus finding a more suitable anchor currency has become a common problem.With the acceleration of RMB internationalization and the enhancement of China’s global influence,RMB has been qualified to be the currency anchor.Based on the structural break test of four exchange rate formation reforms after 2010,the paper measures RMB’s anchor effect in 44 currencies around the world by adopting Frankel’s model,then analyzes the internal logic from the perspective of U-shaped and inverted U-shaped effects of direct formation channels.The results show that,above all,RMB has significant anchoring effect on 44 currencies.and there are U-shaped and inverted U-shaped relationships.Moreover,capital-openness channel and official-reserve channel enhance RMB’s anchor effect after preliminary relaxation of the fluctuation range,while a looser range is conductive to boost the trade-openness channel.Finally,"8·11 Reform"weakens the role of capital-openness channel and official-reserve channel.Contributions lie in the following points.Firstly,the relationship between the non-exchange-rate variable and the currency anchor effect is extended from linear correlation to U-shaped and inverted U-shaped correlation.Secondly,the formation mechanism of RMB’s anchor effect is comprehensively analyzed from the direct channels.Thirdly,influences of different types and stages of reforms are considered.

作者陶士贵胡静怡 Tao Shigui;Hu Jingyi(School of Business,Nanjing Normal University)

机构地区南京师范大学商学院

出处《国际金融研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2021年第1期76-86,共11页 Studies of International Finance

基金国家社会科学基金重点项目“非对称货币权力下国际经济金融制裁与反制裁效果研究”(19AGJ011) 江苏高校哲学社会科学重大项目“人民币国际化背景下中资银行‘走出去’防范国外反洗钱制裁的研究”(2017ZDAXM009)资助

关键词货币锚人民币直接形成渠道汇率形成机制改革 Anchor Currency RMB Direct Formation Channels Exchange Rate Formation Reform

分类号 F832.6 [经济管理—金融学]

作者简介陶士贵,法学博士,南京师范大学商学院教授,博士生导师;胡静怡,南京师范大学商学院硕士研究生