中美经贸摩擦背景下越南的角色——中国对越南出口的分析视角被引量：13

The Role of Vietnam in the Context of China-U.S. Trade Frictions:An Analytical Perspective on China’s Exports to Vietnam

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摘要文章研究了中美经贸摩擦之下越南的角色,切入点是中国对越出口贸易在中美经贸摩擦期间的显著增长及其结构变化特征。通过构建统一框架全面分解中国对越南的出口,结合美国对华加征关税清单、美越贸易情况,以及中国对越出口的产品性质、不同技术水平等信息,文章区分了贸易摩擦冲击、竞争和互补三类效应,并充分考虑经贸摩擦的直接冲击和生产地转移效应对出口的影响。文章进一步通过多期双重差分法,测算了中美经贸摩擦对于中国对越南出口贸易的影响程度,分析了其在不同商品类别上的差异性影响及作用机制。分析表明,中美经贸摩擦冲击效应显著,大幅推动了中国对越南的出口,中越之间持续性的生产地转移效应不容忽视,不过,互补效应仍是中越贸易的基础。 This article considers the role of Vietnam within the context of China-U.S.trade and commercial frictions.The starting point of the research is the significant increase in and structural change with respect to China’s exports to Vietnam,which have taken place against the backdrop of China-U.S.trade frictions.This paper builds a unified framework for systematically decomposing China’s exports to Vietnam.It combines and incorporates information including the list of tariffs imposed by the United States on China,the details of U.S.-Vietnam trade,the types of Chinese products exported to Vietnam,and different levels of technology.Three types of effects are distinguished:shocks from trade frictions;competition;and complementarity.We fully consider the direct impact of trade frictions and the impact of production transfers on exports.The paper goes on to apply the difference in difference(DID)methodology to measure the extent of the impact of China-U.S.trade frictions on China’s exports to Vietnam,as well as the differences in impacts across various categories of products.The analysis shows the significance of the impact of China-U.S.trade frictions,which has greatly bolstered China’s exports to Vietnam.The effects of continuous production transfer from China to Vietnam cannot be ignored.While so,trade between China and Vietnam is still based on complementarities.

作者杨盼盼徐奇渊张子旭 Yang Panpan;Xu Qiyuan;Zhang Zixu(the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;the University of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院

出处《当代亚太》 CSSCI 北大核心 2022年第4期134-164,168,共32页 Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基金上海浦山新金融发展基金会2020年年度课题“全球产业链重构与中国应对”的资助

关键词中美经贸摩擦中越经贸关系出口分解双重差分法 China-U.S.Trade Frictions China-Vietnam Trade Relations Export Decomposition Difference in Differences Method Division of Labor

分类号 F752.62 [经济管理—国际贸易] F753.33 [经济管理—国际贸易]

作者简介杨盼盼,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员;徐奇渊,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员;张子旭,中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院2019级硕士研究生