货币政策预期管理的优化策略研究被引量：7

Strategies for Optimizing Monetary Policy Expectation Management

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摘要预期管理是货币政策调控的新方向,但如何对其进行优化仍是一个谜。本文创新研究思路,深入探讨预期管理的内涵,提出货币政策预期管理的规范定义。依据新定义,本文构建了一个包含货币政策消息冲击的中型新凯恩斯DSGE模型作为分析的理论基础,并基于福利优化标准进行了六类政策模拟研究。本文提出了优化我国货币政策预期管理的系列建议,建议涵盖央行沟通提前性与可信性的权衡、央行沟通内容的特征、货币政策操作方式和政策目标改变、央行独立性、财政政策的配合等诸多方面。本文的新概念和新思路对于推进预期管理现有研究将有所贡献。系列预期管理优化策略对于中国货币政策实践探索具有积极的借鉴意义。 Expectation management is a new direction of monetary policy regulation,but how to optimize it remains a mystery.This paper offers an original perspective on research.We define monetary policy expectation management based on the connotation of expectation management.Comprehensive analysis is carried out from this new definition.Our research is derived from the perspective of monetary policy news shocks and we develop a medium-sized New Keynesian DSGE framework as the analysis basis.Then we conduct six policy simulation experiments based on welfare optimization criterion.From the empirical results,we propose specific strategies for optimizing expectation management,including considering a tradeoff between advance announcements by and credibility of the central bank,the characteristics of communication by the central bank,changing the operating mechanism of monetary policies and their goals,improving the independence of the central bank,coordinating with fiscal policies and so on.This paper’s contributions will be twofold.First,it develops new concepts and innovative ideas,adding to existing research literature on expectation management.Second,it puts forward a series of suggestions on the strategies for optimizing expectation management,which will be helpful for the practice of monetary policy operations in China.

作者王茜王曦 WANG Qian;WANG Xi(Guangdong University of Finance&Economics,510320;Lingnan College,Sun Yat-sen University,510275)

机构地区广东财经大学金融学院中山大学岭南学院

出处《财贸经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2021年第2期67-85,共19页 Finance & Trade Economics

基金国家自然科学基金青年项目“货币政策立场变化、消息冲击时变性与预期管理优化”(71903204) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“基于消息冲击的中国货币政策预期管理研究”(19YJC790137) 广东省自然科学基金项目“中国经济新常态背景下创新型货币政策操作的政策效应研究”(2018A0303130174)

关键词货币政策预期管理消息冲击优化策略 Monetary Policy Expectation Management News Shocks Optimization Strategies

分类号 F822.0 [经济管理—财政学]

作者简介王茜,广东财经大学金融学院讲师、博士,510320;通讯作者:王曦,中山大学岭南学院教授、博士生导师,510275,电子邮箱:lnswx@mail.sysu.edu.cn。