摘要
本文研究央行言辞沟通能否提振企业家信心。基于中国人民银行《货币政策执行报告》和上市公司年报“管理层讨论与分析”文本,本文构建央行言辞沟通指数和企业家信心指数,利用2007—2022年沪深A股上市公司数据,实证分析央行言辞沟通对企业家信心的影响效应。研究发现,央行言辞沟通能显著影响企业家信心,且这一影响有非对称性,紧缩方向的言辞沟通导致企业家信心下降,宽松方向的言辞沟通却未能显著提升企业家信心。央行声音的强弱和环境噪音的大小会影响央行言辞沟通的实际效果。此外,企业家对央行信息的关注意愿越高、解读能力越强,央行言辞沟通的作用效果越强。异质性分析表明,央行宽松方向言辞沟通提升了国有企业及房地产企业的信心,对民营企业和制造业企业未能产生积极影响。央行言辞沟通具体内容对企业家信心的影响各异。一方面,尽管宽松的货币政策信号有助于改善企业家信心,但负面的经济形势描述削弱了这一效果;另一方面,“降低融资成本”等价格导向的表述能有效提升企业家信心,“释放流动性”等数量导向的表述未显示出明显的效果。
China currently faces the challenge of insufficient effective demand.In fact,behind the insufficient demand,the deeper reason lies in the changes in expectations and confidence.To stabilize and expand aggregate demand,it is essential to improve the expectations of enterprises and boost their development confidence.In recent years,expectation management tools,particularly the central bank communication,have become increasingly prominent in guiding market expectations and behavior.However,whether central bank communication can effectively boost entrepreneur confidence remains to be further explored.This paper constructs central bank communication index and entrepreneur confidence index.Using data from A-share listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2007 to 2022,it empirically analyzes the impact effect of central bank communication on entrepreneur confidence.The research finds that:Central bank verbal communication significantly influences entrepreneurial confidence,but this effect is asymmetric,tight communication reduces confidence,while loose communication fails to significantly boost it.The strength of thecentral banks voice and the level ofenvironmental noise affect the actual effectiveness of central bank communication.Besides,the effect is stronger when entrepreneurs have higher willingness to pay attention to central bank information and stronger interpretation capabilities.Heterogeneity analysis shows that loose communication mainly boosts confidence in state-owned enterprises and real estate.Furthermore,the specific content of central bank communication has different impacts on entrepreneur confidence:On the one hand,while expansionary monetary policy signals help improve confidence,negative descriptions of the economic situation weaken this effect.On the other hand,price-oriented expressions such asreducing financing costs can effectively boost entrepreneur confidence,but quantity-oriented expressions such asinjecting liquidity show no significant effect.The potential contributions of this paper are threefold:First,it deeply explores the impact of central bank communication on entrepreneur confidence,enriching and expanding the literature on expectation management.Second,unlike previous studies examined the policy effects of central bank communication through aspects like direction,frequency,form,and market environment,this paper investigates the communication content,supplementing and developing prior literature.Finally,this paper explores the crucial role of entrepreneurspersonal backgrounds in the transmission of central bank information,opening theblack box of how macro factors affect the micro level.
作者
王宇伟
刘宏雅
范从来
WANG Yuwei;LIU Hongya;FAN Conglai(Yangtze River Delta Economics and Social Development Research Center, Nanjing University;School of Economics, Nanjing University)
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
北大核心
2025年第8期33-52,共20页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD059、22&ZD120)
江苏省研究生科研创新计划(KYCX24_0032)的资助。
关键词
预期管理
央行言辞沟通
企业家信心
文本分析
expectations management
central bank communication
entrepreneur confidence
textual analysis
作者简介
通讯作者:刘宏雅,南京大学经济学院,邮政编码:210093,电子信箱:liuhongya87@163.com。
