摘要
公众预期是影响经济政策效果的重要因素,通过政策沟通优化预期管理对推动宏观经济行稳致远具有重要意义。本文运用文本分析方法对政策指数进行测度,并基于预期引导视角讨论不同时点下货币政策和财政政策沟通对宏观经济不确定性的影响及作用路径。研究表明,持续精准的货币政策和财政政策沟通能够有效降低外部负向冲击带来的经济不确定性,且增加沟通频率对于强化沟通效果具有重要意义。机制检验结果显示,政策工具实施机制和公众政策关注机制是政策沟通的重要渠道,即政策沟通通过强化政策工具实施效果和提高公众对政策的关注程度,从而稳定经济增长。此外,完善政策沟通机制并注重政策组合的协同互动,有利于实现经济平稳增长。
The complicated economic situation at home and abroad has led to a significant increase in China's economic uncertainty,and maintaining stability while pursuing progress has become the general tone of economic development in China.In this context,studying the impact of monetary policy communication and fiscal policy communication on economic uncertainty is of great practical significance for improving the effectiveness of policy implementation and ensuring the smooth operation of the macroeconomy.In this paper,we empirically examine the impact and mechanism of policy communication on economic uncertainty at three specific time points:the international financial crisis,the European sovereign debt crisis,and the Sino-US trade friction using the TVP-VAR model.The main conclusions are as follows.Policy communication can significantly reduce economic uncertainty during the international financial crisis,the European sovereign debt crisis,and the Sino-US trade friction.Policy communication can provide the public with an“information advantage”,which is conducive to enhancing the public's acceptance of policy information and guiding public behavior to converge towards policy objectives.In addition,the economic stabilization effect of policy communication is remarkably sustainable.We re-examine the impact of policy communication on economic uncertainty at different time points by changing the calculation method of economic uncertainty and replacing the construction method of the policy communication index,and verify the robustness of the benchmark estimation results.The results of the mechanism test show that,regarding the policy tools implementation mechanism,the impact of expansionary monetary policy communication leads to an increase in money supply and a decrease in the benchmark interest rate,and active fiscal policy communication sends a policy signal of expanded government spending and reduction of tax burdens.Therefore,policy communication uses the way of strengthening the implementation effects of policy tools to form an effective macroeconomic adjustment.For the public policy attention mechanism,the impact of policy communication on public policy attention is significantly positive,indicating that policy communication can strengthen the public's attention to economic policies and promote the adjustment of public policy expectations in the direction of policy objectives,so as to achieve the unity of policy objectives and economic operation directions.Compared to the existing research,the possible contributions of this paper are that,first,we discuss the mechanism of policy communication on economic uncertainty from the perspective of expectation adjustment,and form a logical chain of“policy communication to expectation adjustment to economic stability”,which provides empirical evidence for optimizing policy communication and strengthening expectation management.Second,supervised machine learning methods are used to quantify both policy communication and expectation guidance.Specifically,the TF-IDF method is used for text vectorization,Word2Vec for keyword expansion,and support vector machines for text classification,effectively enabling accurate extraction of policy text information.Third,we use a supervised machine learning method to measure the fiscal policy communication index,to achieve the accurate measurement of fiscal policy communication of the Ministry of Finance,which has important reference value for improving the accuracy and effectiveness of fiscal policy.Based on our findings,the government should pay attention to both the direct adjustment function of policy communication and the role of expectation guidance,and further improve the mechanism of policy communication.In addition,the government should also focus on strengthening the synergistic effect of policy mixes on macroeconomic operations and implement differentiated communication strategies for different policy instruments.Following a holistic and systematic approach,the government should optimize the coordination mechanism of policy communication from different departments which is significant to form economic expectations and achieve stable growth goals.
作者
张同斌
李媛
王蕾
ZHANG Tongbin;LI Yuan;WANG Lei(School of Economics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics;School of Mathematics and Information Science,Shandong Technology and Business University)
出处
《金融研究》
北大核心
2025年第7期21-38,共18页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD062)
辽宁省教育厅高校基本科研项目(LJ112410173080)的资助。
关键词
经济不确定性
政策沟通指数
公众关注
文本分析
Economic Uncertainty
Policy Communication Index
Public Attention
Text Analysis Methods
作者简介
张同斌,经济学博士,教授,东北财经大学经济学院,E-mail:tongbinzhang@126.com;李媛,博士研究生,东北财经大学经济学院,E-mail:dufe_liyuan@163.com;通讯作者:王蕾,博士研究生,讲师,山东工商学院数学与信息科学学院,东北财经大学经济学院,E-mail:wldufe@foxmail.com.
