摘要
区域碳减排对中国实现“双碳”目标起着重要作用,预测区域能源消费碳达峰时间及峰值大小对实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义.以河南省为例,运用IPCC法测算2000-2019年河南省能源消费碳排放量,基于STIRPAT扩展模型及岭回归法分析能源消费碳排放影响因素,并预测不同情景下2020-2040年全省达峰值及达峰时间.结果表明:(1)2000-2019年河南省能源消费CO_(2)排放量及人均CO_(2)排放量均呈倒“U”型趋势,碳排放强度呈现持续下降趋势.(2)正向影响因素对能源消费碳排放量作用程度大小依次为产业结构(1.900%)、城市化率(0.602%)、人均GDP(0.231%)和能源强度(0.079%),负向影响因子的作用程度大小依次为人口规模(-2.659%)和能源结构(-0.888%).(3)碳达峰值范围均在1.73~1.86亿t之间,达峰时间均出现在2029年.在节能情景下达峰值最低,约为1.73亿t;在无序情景下达峰值最高,约为1.86亿t.综合6种情景发现,人均GDP、城市化率和能源结构呈中低速增长,且人口规模、能源强度和产业结构呈中高速发展,可更早实现碳达峰.研究结果探讨了河南省能源消费碳达峰值及其时间,以期为河南省制定碳减排政策提供科学依据.
Regional carbon emission reduction plays an important role in China’s realization of the“double carbon”goal.Predicting the peak time and peak size of regional energy consumption carbon is of great significance to realize the“double carbon”goal.Taking Henan Province as an example,the carbon emission of energy consumption from 2000 to 2019 was calculated based on the IPCC inventory method,the influencing factors of carbon emission of energy consumption were analyzed by using STIRPAT extended model and ridge regression method,and the peak value and peak time of the whole province from 2020 to 2040 were predicted under different scenarios.The results showed that:(1)From 2000 to 2019,the CO_(2)emission and per capita CO_(2)emission of energy consumption in Henan Province showed an inverted“U”trend,and the carbon emission intensity showed a continuous downward trend.(2)The degree of positive influencing factors on energy consumption carbon emissions was in turn(1.900%),urbanization rate(0.602%),per capita GDP(0.231%),and energy strength(0.079%).The size of the population was the population scale(-2.659%),the energy structure(-0.888%).(3)The peak value range of carbon was 173~186 million t,and the peak time occurs in 2029.The lowest peak value was about 173 million tons in the energy-saving scenario;The peak value was about 186million tons in the disordered scenario.Based on the six scenarios,it was found that the per capita GDP,urbanization rate and energy structure ware growing at a medium low speed,and the population size,energy intensity and industrial structure were developing at a medium high speed,so the carbon peak can be achieved earlier.The research results discussed the peak value and time of energy consumption carbon in Henan Province,which provide a scientific basis for formulating carbon emission reduction policies in Henan Province.
作者
王倩倩
娄媛媛
张鹏岩
王春晖
朱慧儒
张金炳
刘振岳
WANG Qianqian;LOU Yuanyuan;ZHANG Pengyan;WANG Chunhui;ZHU Huiru;ZHANG Jinbing;LIU Zhenyue(Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions,Ministry of Education/College of Geography and Environmental Science/Research Center of Regional Development and Planning/Ecological Protection and Rural Revitalization along the Yellow River,Henan University,Henan Kaifeng 475004,China;Gollege of Economics,Economics Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《河南大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2023年第1期47-59,共13页
Journal of Henan University:Natural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41601175)
2020年河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2020BJJ020)
2020年度河南省高校创新人才支持计划(20HASTIT017)
2018年度河南省高等学校青年骨干教师培养计划(2018GGJS019)
河南省软科学研究项目(212400410250)
河南省高等学校青年骨干教师培养项目(2020GGJS114)
作者简介
王倩倩(1996-),女,河南周口人,硕士研究生.研究方向:土地利用碳排放;通信作者:张鹏岩,E-mail:pengyanzh@126.com
