摘要
为研究内蒙古自治区在实现碳达峰过程中的影响因素及对策,本文基于Kaya恒等式、灰色关联模型和主成分回归法建立了回归模型。为了预测未来内蒙古自治区碳达峰,利用情景分析法基于历史数据进行情景设定,构造了8种模式预测自治区的碳排放量。结果表明:若在出台相关政策对能源进行有效控制的前提下,自治区可以在2030年前提前实现碳达峰。
In order to study the influencing factors and countermeasures in the process of peaking carbon dioxide emissions in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,this paper established a regression model based on the Kaya identity,the grey correlation model,and the principal component regression method.In order to predict the future carbon peak of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,the scenario analysis method was used to set up scenarios based on historical data,and eight models were constructed to predict the carbon emissions of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.The results showed that if relevant policies were introduced to effectively control energy,the autonomous region would achieve a carbon peak before 2030.
作者
伊德日夫
王路航
解宇龙
萨和雅
Yiderifu;WANG Luhang;XIE Yulong;Saheya(Secondary Art School affiliated to Inner Mongolia Art University,Hohhot 010010,China;College of Mathematics Science,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,China;Center for Applied Mathematics,Inner Mongolia,Hohhot 010022,China)
出处
《内蒙古农业大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2022年第6期102-107,共6页
Journal of Inner Mongolia Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(6216010232)
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2019LH01001,2019BS01002)
关键词
碳达峰
主成分分析
灰色关联模型
情景分析法
Carbon peak
Principal component analysis
Grey relational model
Scenario analysis
作者简介
伊德日夫(1980—),男,蒙古族,副教授,主要从事数学教学方面的研究
