摘要
本文采用全国税源调查数据,运用断点回归方法,检验了2014年小微企业所得税减半征收带来的就业影响。研究显示,享受优惠政策的企业雇工数量平均增加了5.36%~5.72%。减税的就业效应存在明显的行业异质性,制造业和建筑业等行业存在较为明显的就业激励效果,服务业效果不明显;细分制造业中纺织业、农副食品加工业等劳动密集型行业效果显著,计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业等技术密集型行业效果不显著。此外,政策激励使得小微企业在增加雇工的同时也提高了投资水平,说明二者的互补性。对成本加成率指标的断点检验并不支持价格调整效应。总体上,减税政策能够发挥稳定小微企业就业的作用,但从异质性来看,未来应考虑政策有效性边界。
Based on the data of National Taxation Resource Survey,this paper uses the regression discontinuity method to test the employment effect of the half reduction of income tax in 2014.The results show that enterprises who enjoyed preferential policies have increased their employment by5.36%~5.72%on average.The employment effect has obvious industrial heterogeneity:it is more significant in industries such as manufacturing and construction but insignificant in service;it is significant in labor-intensive industries such as textile industry and food industry,but insignificant in technology-intensive industries,for example,computer,communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry.In addition,this policy has promoted small and micro enterprises to increase their employment as well as their investment,indicating a complementarity between employment and investment.The cost markup rate does not support the price adjusting effect under the discontinuity test.In general,this policy can play a role in stabilizing employment of small and micro enterprises.However,from the perspective of heterogeneity,the boundary of policy effectiveness should be considered in the future.
作者
解洪涛
张建顺
Xie Hongtao;Zhang Jianshun(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期21-36,共16页
Economic Review
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“中小企业减税效果评估与政策优化——基于全国税源调查数据的研究”(项目编号:19BJY232)的支持
关键词
所得税减半征收
就业影响
政策效果评估
断点回归
Half Reduction of Income Tax
Employment Effect
Policy Effect Evaluation
Regression Discontinuity
作者简介
解洪涛,中南财经政法大学财税学院,邮政编码:430073,电子信箱:xht_322@zuel.edu.cn;张建顺,中南财经政法大学财税学院,邮政编码:430073,电子信箱:1390959200@qq.com。
