摘要
各民族共同走向人口现代化对于各民族共同实现现代化意义重大。通过使用历次全国人口普查和1%人口抽样调查数据,本文对各民族的人口现代化过程进行了分析,研究发现:自20世纪80年代以来,各民族共同走向人口现代化的总体趋势得到了确认;具体而言,各民族人口再生产类型均在经历由传统阶段向现代阶段的转变;各民族人口迁移流动愈加活跃,少数民族人口流动参与率紧追汉族人口;各民族人口的平均受教育年限和每10万人中拥有大学受教育程度的人数持续提高,文盲率大幅降低;各民族人口的城镇化水平亦不断攀升;收敛模型分析结果显示,除文盲率外,各民族各项人口现代化指标均呈收敛态势。但是,目前仍存在着个别民族的个别指标水平相对落后、文盲率发展收敛趋势不明显、人口现代化指标体系建设不全、民族人口数据较为匮乏等问题。据此,本研究认为:应高度重视人口现代化指标水平相对落后的民族,进一步做好文盲率相对较高地区的基础教育工作,完善人口现代化理论和指标体系并加强民族人口统计资料的调查、收集和分享工作。
The common progress of all ethnic groups towards population modernization is of great significance to the common realization of modernization by all ethnic groups.Using the data from previous national censuses and 1 percent population sample surveys,this article analyzes the population modernization process of various ethnic groups and makes following findings:since the 1980 s,the overall trend of all ethnic groups jointly moving towards population modernization has been confirmed;specifically,the population reproduction types of all ethnic groups are undergoing the transformation from the traditional stage to the modern stage;the migration and mobility of all ethnic groups has become more active,and ethnic population mobility participation rate is closely following that of the Han ethnic population;average length of education of all ethnic groups and the number of people with university education per 100,000 people continued to increase,and the illiteracy rate decreased significantly;urbanization level of all ethnic populations keeps increasing;results of convergence model show that except for the illiteracy rate,the population modernization indexes of all ethnic groups show a convergence trend.However,there are remaining problems,such as the relatively underdeveloped level of individual ethnic groups,the unclear convergence trend of illiteracy rate,the incomplete construction of the index system of population modernization,and the lack of ethnic population data.Accordingly,this study believes that great attention should be paid to the ethnic groups with relatively underdeveloped indicators of population modernization,further enhance the basic education work in areas with relatively high illiteracy rate,improve the theory and index system of population modernization,and strengthen the investigation,collection and sharing of ethnic demographic data.
作者
段成荣
黄凡
毕忠鹏
DUAN Cheng-rong;HUANG Fan;BI Zhong-peng(Population Development Studies Center,Renmin University of China;School of Sociology and Population Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872)
出处
《中央民族大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第3期117-127,共11页
Journal of Minzu University of China(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)
基金
教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“中国少数民族人口与边疆发展研究”(项目编号:18JJD840001)的阶段性成果
关键词
民族人口
人口现代化
现代化
ethnic population
population modernization
modernization
作者简介
段成荣,中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心教授,教育部“长江学者奖励计划”特聘教授;黄凡,中国人民大学人口学博士研究生;毕忠鹏,中国人民大学人口学博士研究生。
