摘要
巩固脱贫攻坚成果是实现乡村振兴的重要前提。大量研究评估了精准扶贫的脱贫效应,但对“脱贫不脱政策”的返贫预防效应关注较少。为了探索“脱贫不脱政策”是否降低了脱贫农户的返贫风险,本文使用中国家庭金融调查2013—2019年四期微观面板数据,借助复原力指标测度脱贫农户返贫风险,并通过断点回归设计(RDD)考察了“脱贫不脱政策”的政策效应。实证结果显示,在2014年贫困线附近脱贫农户的返贫风险存在明显的断点,“脱贫不脱政策”显著降低了脱贫农户的返贫风险,但政策效应强度随着时间递减。“脱贫不脱政策”对受教育水平较低的农户以及边缘易致贫农户影响更大,但对家庭抚养负担较重及存在患病人口的农户政策倾斜不足。影响机制检验结果显示,“脱贫不脱政策”通过缓解农户外部约束、改变农户内生偏好的渠道降低了农户返贫风险,其中短期内政策通过激发农户内生动力的方式改变了农户内生偏好,福利依赖效应并不明显。本文为“确保主要帮扶政策总体平稳连续”提供了经验证据,也为建立稳定脱贫长效机制的政策优化调整提供了建议。
Consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation is an important prerequisite for rural revitalization.Many studies have evaluated the policy effectiveness of targeted poverty alleviation but pay less attention to the prevention effect of returning to poverty of policies of maintaining the sustainability of poverty alleviation.In order to explore whether policies of maintaining the sustainability of poverty alleviation reduce the risk of returning to poverty of farmers who out of poverty,this paper uses the micro data from China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)2013-2019 to measure the risk of returning to poverty of farmers who out of poverty with the help of resilience indicators,and examines the policy effectiveness of maintaining the sustainability of poverty alleviation through regression discontinuity design(RDD),so as to provide path reference for further improving the follow-up policies.The contributions of this paper are as follows.First,in terms of research subject,compared with previous literature which focuses on poor households,this paper focuses on the risk of returning to poverty of farmers who have been lifted out of poverty,and provides reference for the evaluation of the implementation effect of policies of maintaining the sustainability of poverty alleviation.Second,in the terms of estimating the risk of returning to poverty,this paper uses resilience to show the dynamic of risk.Resilience indicators measure the ability of families to return to certain welfare standards after exogenous shocks and pay more attention to measuring the family’s own ability to cope with risks.Since resilience does not need to assume a specific form of utility function,the choice of welfare indicators is more flexible and more robust.The indicator is also forward-looking,dynamic,and non-linear,which can better characterize the welfare dynamics and welfare distribution.The estimate shows that there is significant difference between treatment group and control group in resilience,policies of maintaining the sustainability of poverty alleviation could have an impact on the risk of returning to poverty of farmers who have been lifted out of poverty.Third,in terms of data selection and empirical methods,a balance panel containing 894 farmers in poverty alleviation is constructed by using the data from CHFS from 2013 to 2019,which can better characterize the dynamic and nonlinear characteristics of the risk of returning to poverty and at the same time ensure the consistency of the samples during estimation,and reduce the potential impact of sample changes on the estimation result.This paper uses fuzzy RDD for causal inference as the empirical method,which improves the reliability of the conclusions.The empirical results show that the policy has significant positive effect on famers’risk resilience capability and thus significantly reduces the risk of returning poverty of farmers who have been lifted out of poverty.Fourth,this paper puts forward the mechanism of policy implementation.Again,using the CHFS and fuzzy RDD,we estimate two potential mechanisms—alleviating external constraints and changing endogenous preferences.This paper finds that there is an obvious breakpoint in the risk of returning to poverty of farmers who have been lifted out of poverty near the poverty line in 2014.Policies of maintaining the sustainability of poverty alleviation significantly reduce the risk of returning to poverty of farmers who have been lifted out of poverty,but the policy effectiveness decreases with time.Further research shows that the policy has a great impact on those with low educational levels and poverty-prone households near the poverty line but is not sufficiently favorable to households with a heavy burden of support and those with sick people.The mechanism analysis shows that the policies of maintaining the sustainability of poverty alleviation reduce the risk of returning to poverty by alleviating farmers’external constraints and changing farmers’endogenous preferences.In the short term,the policies change farmers’endogenous preferences by stimulating their endogenous motivation,and the welfare dependence effect is not obvious.This paper provides empirical evidence for ensuring the overall stability and continuity of main poverty alleviation assistance policies and provides implications for the optimization and adjustment of follow-up policies.
作者
贾男
王赫
JIA Nan;WANG He(School of Economics,Sichuan University)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第10期121-137,共17页
Economic Research Journal
基金
教育部一般项目“建立健全稳定脱贫长效机制的政策体系研究——返贫风险测度与政策效应评估”(22YJA790025)的阶段性成果
关键词
“脱贫不脱政策”
返贫风险
断点回归设计
Policies of Maintaining the Sustainability of Poverty Alleviation
Risk of Returning to Poverty
Regression Discontinuity Design
作者简介
贾男,四川大学经济学院,邮政编码:610065,电子信箱:jianan@scu.edu.cn;王赫,四川大学经济学院,邮政编码:610065,电子信箱:1192728000@qq.com。
