摘要
本文将能源价格扭曲因素嵌入到年限资本模型中,演绎其内生影响资本能效的动态过程,并通过将该拓展型年限资本模型与影子成本函数有机结合,考察能源价格扭曲对我国工业部门能源消耗以及碳排放的作用机理与影响程度。随后,基于结构化的实证模型建立跨期动态模拟模型,系统评估能源价格扭曲纠正对我国工业部门碳达峰路径的影响。基于2001—2016年省际工业部门数据的研究结果表明:(1)工业生产中能源相对于资本的价格扭曲系数为0.78,意味着能源相对于达到最优配置状况下的资本而言投入过多;(2)能源价格扭曲抑制了资本用能效率的提升;若对能源价格扭曲进行完全纠正,将促进工业部门资本存量的用能效率提升12.62%;(3)在资本实现最优配置的前提下,消除能源价格扭曲可使我国工业部门年均节能3.1亿吨标准煤,并减少10.79亿吨CO_(2)排放;(4)模拟结果显示:在工业产出保持9%的增速下,我国工业部门CO_(2)排放预计在2026年达峰;若将能源相对价格扭曲整体纠正20%,则可促进我国工业部门CO_(2)排放提前两年达峰,且峰值降低5.33亿吨。
In order to cope with global climate change proactively,the Chinese government has announced to peak its CO_(2) emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.The ambitious goals bring unprecedented challenges to the highquality development of China's economy while bringing it new opportunities.Severing as an important growth engine of the national economy,China's industrial sector has accounted for more than 80%of the country's total CO_(2) emissions since the beginning of the 21st century.In this context,improving the energy efficiency of China's industrial sector and reducing the fossil energy consumption are crucial to achieving China's carbon peak target.Over the past decades,driven by two major goals of promoting rapid economic growth and maintaining social stability,the prices of the four major energy products,namely,coal,oil,natural gas and electricity,have been largely under government control,failing to fully reflect their scarcity.It follows that the current distorted energy price system is one of the decisive factors leading to the massive energy demand,low energy efficiency,and high-carbon energy mix in China's industrial sector.Based on an insight into the micro-dynamic mechanism of energy price distortion affecting energy demands and CO_(2) emissions through the dynamic accumulation of energy-efficient capital,this paper empirically examines the impact of correcting energy price distortion on energy consumptions and CO_(2) emissions in the industrial sector using panel data at the provincial industrial level in China from 2001 to 2016.Subsequently,an intertemporal dynamic simulation model is developed to assess the impact of the correction of energy price distortion for the path of carbon peak in China's industrial sector.The results show that there exist relative price distortion between energy and capital in the industrial production.On the premise of optimal allocation of capital,energy price distortion inhibits the improvement of energy efficiency of capital equipment.Eliminating energy price distortion can save on average 310 million tons of standard coal per year and reduce 1079 million tons of CO_(2) emissions in China's industrial sector,and the effect is most obvious in Shandong,Anhui and Jilin.The simulation results show that the industrial sector is expected to peak its CO_(2) emissions in 2026 when the growth rate of industrial output is set at 9%.If 20%of the relative energy price distortion was removed,CO_(2) emissions from the industrial sector could peak two years earlier and the peak value would be reduced by 533 million tons.According to the main conclusions drawn above,some useful policy implications can be put forward.First of all,the Chinese government should persistently promote the market-oriented reform of energy prices,and in particular,it should gradually deregulate the price of electricity,oil and natural gas.Second,it is necessary to provide appropriate economic incentives such as green credit support and green tax rebate to high energy-consuming enterprises in the initial stage of correcting the distortion of energy price,so that these enterprises will not suffer from huge cost burden of the correction of price distortion.Last but not least,in view of the significant differences among different regions in economic development level and resource endowment,the market-oriented reform of energy prices should be adapted to local development status and comparative advantages,and avoid the one-size-fits-all implementation at the national level.The main innovations of this paper lie in the following two aspects.(1)By embedding the factor of energy price distortion into the vintage capital model,we construct an improved vintage capital model considering energy price distortion to deduce the dynamic process of endogenous influence of energy price distortion on energy efficiency of capital theoretically.(2)Based on the chain influence path of correction of energy price distortion→improvement of energy efficiency of new capital→improvement of energy efficiency of capital stock→reduction of energy demand→reduction of CO_(2) emission,we establish a novel counterfactual analytical framework for energy conservation and emission reduction to explore the internal mechanism and influence of correcting energy price distortion on energy consumption and carbon emissions of China's industrial sector.
作者
杨冕
徐江川
杨福霞
YANG Mian;XU Jiangchuan;YANG Fuxia(Economics and Management School,Wuhan University;School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第12期69-86,共18页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073105,71774122,71874064)的资助
关键词
能源相对价格扭曲
资本用能效率
节能减碳潜力
碳达峰路径
Relative Energy Price Distortion
Energy Efficiency of Capital
Potential of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction
Path of Carbon Peak
作者简介
杨冕,武汉大学经济与管理学院,邮政编码:430072,电子信箱:yangmian909@163.com;通讯作者:徐江川,中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,邮政编码:430073,电子信箱:shadowfaxjc@163.com;杨福霞,华中农业大学经济管理学院,邮政编码:430070,电子信箱:yangfx@mail.hzau.edu.cn。
