摘要
新发展格局下消费金融发展对拉动内需起到重要作用,而零售消费金融作为消费金融的分支,对促进经济内循环有一定作用。通过构建VAR模型,使用脉冲响应分析等研究方法,实证分析零售消费金融对消费需求及内循环的影响程度,结果表明:发展零售消费金融对推动经济内循环具有正向促进作用,失业率升高对消费需求有负向作用,而房价变化带来的冲击则随着时间的推移由负向逐渐转为正向影响。为增强零售消费金融对我国经济内循环的促进作用,一方面,要加大金融科技研发投入,形成零售消费金融产业链,建立信息共享机制;另一方面,要提高社会保障投入水平,将房价控制在合理的范围内,保证零售消费金融对推动供给侧产业升级及需求侧消费升级的促进作用,助力畅通国内大循环。
The development of consumer finance in the new development pattern plays an important role in boosting domestic demand,and retail consumer finance,as a branch of consumer finance,has a certain effect on the economic internal circulation.By constructing a VAR model and using impulse response analysis,we empirically analyze the impact of retail consumer finance on consumer demand and domestic circulation.The results show that the development of retail consumer finance has a positive effect on boosting domestic demand,while the increase in unemployment rate has a negative effect on consumer demand,and the shock brought by changes in house prices gradually changes from negative to positive over time.In order to enhance the role of retail consumer finance in promoting the internal circulation of China’s economy,on the one hand,it is necessary to increase investment in financial technology research and development,form a retail consumer finance industry chain,and establish an information sharing mechanism;on the other hand,it is necessary to improve the level of social security investment,control housing prices within a reasonable range,and ensure the promotion role of retail consumer finance in promoting industrial upgrading on the supply side and consumption upgrading on the demand side,so as to help smooth the large domestic cycle.
作者
张海龙
贺倚云
Zhang Hai-long;He Yi-yun(School of Economics and Management,Changchun University of Technology,Changchun Jilin 130012)
出处
《经济纵横》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期121-128,共8页
Economic Review Journal
关键词
零售消费金融
消费需求
经济内循环
VAR模型
Retail Consumer Finance
Consumer Demand
Economic Internal Circulation
VAR Model
作者简介
张海龙,长春工业大学经济管理学院教授;通讯作者:贺倚云,长春工业大学经济管理学院硕士研究生。
