摘要
把握房价预期特征及其对消费行为的影响,在强信心、促消费中具有必要性和紧迫性.近年来,消费金融行业方兴未艾,如何聚合消费与金融二者之力提振消费已成为亟须解决的科学问题.然而,已有研究缺乏从家庭层面考察房价预期的异质性和有限理性,这增加了分析房价预期影响消费行为,以及消费金融在推动以上影响中作用的难度.基于行为经济学理论,结合家庭微观调查数据和地区房价数据,研究房价预期的家庭异质性,进而探究房价预期对消费行为的影响.具体地,通过采用分数时间序列分析理性和适应性预期对应的房价波动规律,以识别市场房价预期的主导特征,并结合家庭预算约束信息,测量家庭房价预期的类型和强度;构建多元回归模型,考察家庭理性和适应性房价预期对消费行为影响的差异;分别从是否使用和使用规模两方面测量家庭消费金融的使用情况,进而检验消费金融对房价预期影响消费行为的中介作用;采用工具变量、重新构建家庭房价预期特征变量进行稳健性检验;根据住房租购模式、家庭消费水平等区分家庭样本,考察房价预期影响消费行为的异质性.研究结果表明,房价预期类型与强度具有家庭异质性,中国家庭房价预期以适应性为主,占家庭样本总比重的77.8%;适应性房价预期对家庭消费具有负向影响,理性房价预期对家庭消费具有微弱的正向影响;随着住房消费模式由购转租,理性和适应性房价预期对家庭消费的影响力度均逐渐增大;房价预期通过作用于家庭消费金融的使用意愿影响消费行为.在理论方面,从行为经济学视角突破家庭房价预期异质性的研究局限,为揭示房价预期对消费行为的影响做出边际知识贡献;丰富了消费金融研究在消费领域的理论基础,为房价预期对家庭消费的影响机理提供了可能的解释.在实践方面,研究结果对更好引导公众预期、释放消费潜力具有重要政策意义.
It is necessary and urgent to grasp the housing price expectations and its impact on consumption in strengthening confidence and promoting consumption.In recent years,how to combine the power of consumption and finance to boost consumption has become an important scientific issue that needs to be solved.However,existing studies lack the heterogeneity and bounded rationality of housing price expectations from the household level,which further increases the difficulty in analyzing the impact of housing price expectations on consumption behaviors and the role of consumer finance in promoting the above impact.Based on the theory of behavioral economics,this paper combines household micro-survey data with regional house price data to measure the household heterogeneity of housing price expectations,and explores the impact of housing price expectations on consumption.Specifically,fractional time series analysis is used to clarify the housing price fluctuation law corresponding to rational and adaptive expectations,so as to identify the dominant characteristics of market housing price expectations,and further measure the type and intensity of household housing price expectations by combining household budget constraint information.A multiple regression model is constructed to investigate the difference of the influence of household rational and adaptive housing price expectations on consumption behavior.A household level consumer finance index is generated from two aspects,i.e.,whether consumer finance is used and the scale of use.Through this,the intermediary role of consumer finance in driving the relation between housing price expectations and consuming behaviors is tested.The robustness of the research results is discussed through the instrumental variable model and re-constructing the characteristic variable of household price expectations.Differentiating family samples according to the housing tenure choice,household consumption level,etc.,the heterogeneity in the impact of housing price expectations on household consumption is investigated.Our findings show that(1)there is obvious heterogeneity in the type and intensity of household housing price expectations,and the Expectations of household housing price in China is mainly adaptive,accounting for 77.8%of the total household sample;(2)Adaptive housing price expectations has a significant negative effect on household consumption;(3)Rational housing price expectations has a weak positive effect on household consumption;(4)As the housing consumption pattern changes from purchase to rent,the absolute impact of both rational and adaptive expectations on household consumption increases gradually.(5)Housing price expectation affects household consumption behavior through its effect on households'willingness to use consumer finance.From the perspective of behavioral economics,this paper breaks through the research limitations of the heterogeneity of household housing price expectations,and makes marginal knowledge contribution to reveal the impact of housing price expectations on consuming behaviors.At the same time,it enriches the theoretical basis of consumer finance research in the field of consumption,and provides a possible explanation for the influence mechanism of housing price expectations on household consumption.In practice,the research conclusions possess important implications for better guiding public expectations and releasing consumption potentials.
作者
段堃
杨焯月
张丽雅
陈海强
黄莹莹
DUAN Kun;YANG Zhuoyue;ZHANG Liya;CHEN Haiqiang;HUANG Yingying(School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen,361005,China;School of Management,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150001,China)
出处
《管理科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期3-19,共17页
Journal of Management Science
基金
教育部“春晖计划”合作科研项目(HZKY20220332)
国家自然科学基金(72201077)
关键词
理性预期
适应性预期
房价波动
家庭消费
消费金融
rational expectations
naive expectations
housing price dynamics
consumption behavior
consumer finance
作者简介
段堃,经济学博士,华中科技大学经济学院助理教授,研究方向为价格波动与预期、资本市场等,代表性学术成果为“Credit composition and housing price dynamics:a disaggregation approach”,发表在2022年第11期《European Journal of Finance》,E-mail:kunduan@hust.edu.cn;杨焯月,华中科技大学经济学院硕士研究生,研究方向为消费者行为等,E-mail:yangzhuoyue0501@163.com;张丽雅,华中科技大学经济学院硕士研究生,研究方向为房地产经济与金融、行为经济学等,E-mail:lyzhang27@outlook.com;陈海强,经济学博士,厦门大学王亚南经济研究院教授,研究方向为数字经济和金融计量等,代表性学术成果为“股东网络“太关联”是否加剧崩盘风险?-基于A股市场的经验证据”,发表在2023年第3期《经济学》季刊,E-mail:hc335@xmu.edu.cn;黄莹莹,管理学博士,哈尔滨工业大学管理学院副教授,研究方向为房地产市场风险评估和金融市场定价等,代表性学术成果为“Housing networks in urban China:A panel VAR model with Bayesian stochastic search”,发表在2023年第140卷《Cities》,E-mail:huangyingying@hit.edu.cn
