摘要
以江苏省疫情专题数据、人口迁徙数据等为基础,从时空大数据的角度对江苏省新冠疫情进行分析评价,总结疫情在时间和空间上的发展规律。主要研究内容包括:基于动态参数的Logistic模型来拟合全省确诊人数变化趋势并与实际确诊人数进行对比分析;通过时空迁徙特征来分析疫情在空间上的实际分布情况与高危地区之间的相关性。经对比,采用的模型其最终预测结果与江苏省新冠疫情最终实际确诊人数仅相差约1%,说明基于动态参数的Logistic模型对于流行病感染人数预测具有较好的适用性;基于时空迁徙特征的疫情高危地区预测与实际感染情况有一定出入,说明人口迁徙是疫情空间分布的重要影响因素,但不是唯一因素,可作为疫情防控的参考依据之一。
Based on the thematic data of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province and the data of population migration,this paper makes an analysis and evaluation of COVID-19 situation in Jiangsu Province from the perspective of spatiotemporal big data,and summarizes the development law of the epidemic situation in time and space.The main research contents include:the logistic model based on dynamic parameters to fit the trend of the number of confirmed cases across the whole province and make a comparative analysis with the actual number of confirmed cases,through the characteristics of spatiotemporal migration to analyze the relationship between the actual spatial distribution of the epidemic and the high-risk areas.By comparison,the final prediction results of the model used in this paper are only about 1%different from the final actual number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province,which shows that the logistic model based on dynamic parameters has a good applicability for the prediction of the number of infected cases of the epidemic,the prediction of high-risk areas of the epidemic based on the characteristics of spatiotemporal migration is different from the actual emotional situation,which shows that population migration is the spatial distribution of the epidemic,but not the only factor,it can be used as one of the reference basis for epidemic prevention and control.
作者
周松
沈蕾
王伟
ZHOU Song;SHEN Lei;WANG Wei(Jiangsu Surveying and Mapping Engineering Institute,Nanjing Jiangsu 210013,China;Kunshan Construction Survey Co.,Ltd.,Suzhou Jiangsu 215300,China)
出处
《现代测绘》
2020年第3期5-10,共6页
Modern Surveying and Mapping
基金
开放式位置服务平台建设及应用示范项目——地理时空大数据子平台(Z135060000070)
作者简介
第一作者:周松,研究方向为地理信息系统、智慧城市时空大数据平台建设。
