摘要
随着GVC的不断发展,基于产品内国际分工的中间产品贸易迅速发展并成为国际贸易的主要方式。本文试图从中间产品的视角探讨贸易对不同技能劳动力需求水平及劳动力需求弹性的影响。本文基于2005—2016年中国32个工业行业的面板数据,采用固定效应模型从工业行业整体就业的全样本数据以及基于行业特征分类的子样本数据进行静态的面板回归,并采用系统GMM模型对基于全样本的动态面板数据进行实证检验。研究结果表明:一方面,中间产品的进口对整体及低技能劳动力需求的影响主要表现为负向的替代作用,并且会随技术进步而变弱;另一方面,其出口对整体以及低技能劳动力需求的影响表现为正向的促进作用,并且会随技术进步而变弱,但对于高技能劳动就业的拉动作用会随技术进步而增强。另外,中间产品进口贸易增加主要增加整体和低技能劳动力的需求弹性,使就业风险上升;而中间产品出口的增加会降低劳动力的需求弹性,缓解就业和工资波动对就业的冲击。最后,本文提出了增加中国工业行业就业和降低就业风险的政策建议。
With the continuous development of Global Value Chains,intermediate goods trade based on intra-product specialization has developed rapidly and became the principal means of international trade. This paper attempts to explore the impact of trade on the employment level of labor force with different skills and the elasticity of labor demand from the perspective of intermediate goods. Based on the panel data of 32 industrial sectors in China from 2005 to 2016,using the fixed-effects model,static panel regression is performed based on the full sample data of the whole employment in industry and the sub-sample data classifying by the industry characteristics,and the empirical results are tested using the system GMM model based on the full sample data. The results that,on the one hand,the import of intermediate goods has negative substitution effect on the employment of the whole and low-skilled labor force,and will weaken with the technological advances;on the other hand,its export has a positive effect on the employment of the whole and low-skilled labor force,and it will weaken with the technological advances,but its driving effect on the employment of high-skilled labor force will increase with the technological advancement. In addition,the increase in the import trade of intermediate goods mainly increases the demand elasticity of the whole and low-skilled labor,which increases the employment risk;while the increase in the export of intermediate goods will reduce the elasticity of demand of labor,which alleviates the impact of employment and wage fluctuations on employment. Finally,this paper proposes policy recommendations to increase employment and reduce employment risks in China’s industrial sector.
出处
《开放经济研究》
2019年第1期29-55,共27页
Open Economy
基金
广东省科技厅软科学课题“人力资本、产业分工对区域经济发展的影响和作用机理研究——基于珠三角的实践”和广东经济发展方式转变与产业、人口、教育、就业政策仿真模型及技术支撑平台构建研究(2016A070705055)
国家自然科学基金项目和广东外语外贸大学重大培育项目“对外贸易结构调整对劳动力市场的影响机制与政策研究”(71673063)
广东外语外贸大学研究生科研创新项目“中美农产品贸易对农业部门就业的影响和政策研究”(18GWCXXM-17)
广州市社科联项目“广州城乡一体研究”的资助.
关键词
中间产品贸易
劳动力需求水平
劳动力需求弹性
技术进步
Intermediate Goods Trade
The Level of Labor Demand
The Elasticity of Labor Demand
Technological Advances
作者简介
钟晓凤,广东外语外贸大学南国商学院商务系讲师。
