摘要
在全球新冠病毒疫情冲击下,外国需求降低和国际大宗商品价格波动对我国实体经济造成了冲击,文章通过构建包含贸易和非贸易两部门的开放经济DSGE模型,利用脉冲响应和福利分析研究央行"双政策双工具"下的最优货币政策组合。结果表明:"保增长"的利率政策和"稳汇率"的汇率政策,能够更好的缓释新冠疫情带来的外部冲击,在"保增长"的利率政策下家庭福利水平高于"防通胀"的利率政策,而在"稳汇率"的汇率政策下家庭福利水平高于"稳货币"的汇率政策,因此,通过确定"保增长"和"稳汇率"的货币政策短期目标更有利于缓释外部环境对于本国贸易部门的冲击。
Under the impact of the global COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic,the decline of foreign demand and the fluctuation of international commodity prices have impacted China’s trade sector.This paper constructs an open economy DSGE model including trade and non trade sectors,and uses impulse response and welfare analysis to study the optimal monetary policy combination under the"dual policies and dual tools"of the central bank.The results show that:the interest rate policy of"maintaining growth"and the exchange rate policy of"stable exchange rate"can better mitigate the external impact brought by the covid-19 epidemic.Under the"growth maintaining"interest rate policy,the family welfare level is higher than the"anti inflation"interest rate policy,while the"stable exchange rate"exchange rate policy is higher than the"stable currency"exchange rate policy The short-term objectives of"maintaining growth"and"stabilizing exchange rate"are more conducive to mitigating the impact of external environment on domestic trade sector.
作者
潘超
程均丽
Pan Chao;Cheng Junli(不详)
出处
《南方经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第1期1-19,共19页
South China Journal of Economics
关键词
全球新冠疫情
外国需求冲击
资本账户管制
货币政策
Global COVID-19 epidemic
Foreign demand shocks
Capital account control
Monetary policy
作者简介
潘超,西南财经大学中国金融研究中心,E-mail:763133807@qq.com,通讯地址:成都市温江区柳台大道555号,邮编:611130;程均丽,西南财经大学中国金融研究中心,E-mail:cjl@swufe.edu.cn。
