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大数据税收征管降低了股价崩盘风险吗?——基于“金税三期”的准自然实验 被引量:30

Does Big Data Tax Administration Reduce the Stock Price Crash Risk? A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the “Third Stage of Golden Tax”
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摘要 中共十九届四中全会以来,国家致力于推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化。作为国家治理现代化在税收征管领域的重要体现,"金税三期"大数据税收征管系统提高了企业纳税遵从度,改善了企业的信息环境,产生了额外的政策溢出效应。文章选取2010-2017年沪深A股上市公司作为研究样本,以"金税三期"税务稽查系统改革为准自然实验场景,采用多期双重差分模型,实证检验了大数据税收征管对公司股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现,大数据税收征管显著抑制了上市公司股价崩盘风险,进一步探究其影响机制发现,大数据税收征管通过抑制代理行为和改善信息质量发挥治理效应。基于资本市场宏微观治理机制的研究发现,大数据税收征管治理效应在审计监督较差和法治环境较差的样本组中更加显著。文章从大数据税收征管视角拓展了股价崩盘风险的影响因素研究,为进一步发挥大数据税收征管的政策溢出效应提供了重要的经验数据支撑。 With the development of Internet technology and the maturity of cloud storage and computing frameworks,the era of big data is quietly coming.While big data technology improves the speed and convenience of information acquisition,it is also profoundly affecting the economic development of various countries and the strategic layout of the digital economy.Since the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China,China has been committed to modernizing the national governance system and governance capabilities,in response to the advent of the digital economy era.In 2013,the"Third Stage of Golden Tax"big data tax administration system,which is part of the"Twelve Gold"project of China’s e-government affairs,was put into trial operation for the first time in Chongqing,Shandong,and Shanxi,and gradually spread across the country after system optimization and improvement.As an important part of the modernization of national governance in the field of tax,the"Third Stage of Golden Tax"has improved the tax compliance and information environment of companies.It has produced some additional policy spillover effects.However,existing research pays little attention to the governance effect of big data tax administration in corporate finance.Therefore,exploring the impact of the"Third Stage of Golden Tax"big data tax administration system on the stock price crash risk and its mechanism has important theoretical significance and practical value.This paper takes A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2010 to 2017 as a research sample,chooses the"Third Stage of Golden Tax"tax system reform as a quasi-natural experimental scenario,and uses a multi-period difference-in-differences model to test the impact of big data tax administration on the stock prices crash risk empirically.It is found that big data tax administration significantly suppresses the stock price crash risk.Further exploration of its impact mechanism finds that,through extensive and mutually confirmed information sources and centralized information processing on big data information platforms,big data tax administration has a governance effect by reducing agency behavior behind the camouflage of tax avoidance and improving information quality by reducing manipulate earnings.Research based on the macro and micro governance mechanisms of the capital market finds that the governance effect of big data tax administration is more significant in the sample group with poor audit supervision and poor legal environment.This paper studies on the influencing factors of stock price crash risk from the perspective of big data tax administration,and provides important empirical data support for further exerting the policy spillover effect of big data tax administration.
作者 徐捍军 Xu Hanjun(School of Accounting,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处 《上海财经大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》 CSSCI 北大核心 2021年第2期93-107,共15页 Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
基金 上海财经大学研究生创新基金资助项目“新审计报告文本信息含量与股权融资成本−基于余弦相似度视角”(CXJJ-2020-338)。
关键词 金税三期 大数据税收征管 股价崩盘风险 审计监督 法治环境 "Third Stage of Golden Tax" big data tax administration stock price crash risk audit supervision legal environment
作者简介 徐捍军(1994—),男,安徽合肥人,上海财经大学会计学院博士研究生。
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