摘要
依据特大城市人员密度高和交通网络发达的特点,为确保行人安全疏散,评估人群在短期大规模集聚的可能性和重大安全隐患。采用智慧应急仿真平台建模,根据韩国首尔梨泰院踩踏事故小巷人群应急疏散的特点,通过对行人的疏散行为规律和道路布局进行仿真分析,以韩国首尔梨泰院踩踏事故小巷为例,梳理过往发生的人群集聚踩踏事件,模拟大规模拥堵踩踏应急情况下300人的疏散过程。对特大城市拥堵踩踏中人员疏散行为进行了研究,分析其发生和演化机理。通过减少疏散路径上的阻碍、充分利用资源和人员的分布情况等方面进行了分析,运用BP神经网络、层次分析法和仿真等,合理引导分流行人,采用智慧应急仿真软件,构建人群集聚踩踏事件智慧应急管理模型,降低了行人流的交叉与汇合,建立了人员逃生时间计算模型,并运用这一模型对人群集聚进行智慧应急管理。研究结果可以为大城市拥堵踩踏预警和人员安全疏散提供参考,据此提出提升人群集聚踩踏事件智慧应急管理策略建议,为突发事件应急疏散提供参考建议。
According to the characteristics of high density of people and developed transportation network in megacities,in order to ensure the safe evacuation of pedestrians,the possibility of large-scale crowding in the short term and major safety hazards are evaluated.Using the intelligent emergency simulation platform modeling,according to the characteristics of emergency evacuation of people in the alley of the stampede accident in Seoul,South Korea,through the simulation analysis of the evacuation behavior law and road layout of pedestrians,taking the Itaewon stampede alley in Seoul,South Korea as an example,the past crowding and stampede incidents were sorted out,and the evacuation process of 300 people in the emergency situation of large-scale congestion and stampede was simulated.The evacuation behavior of people in congestion stampede in megacities was studied,and its occurrence and evolution mechanism were analyzed.By reducing the obstacles on the evacuation path,making full use of the distribution of resources and personnel,BP neural network,analytic hierarchy and simulation,etc.,the intelligent emergency management model of the crowd is constructed,the intelligent emergency management model of the crowd gathering stampede is constructed,the intersection and convergence of pedestrian flow are reduced,the calculation model of the escape time of the personnel is established,and the intelligent emergency management of the crowd is carried out by using this model.The research results can provide a reference for the early warning of congestion stampede and the safe evacuation of personnel in large cities,and suggestions for improving the intelligent emergency management strategy of crowding stampede are put forward to provide reference suggestions for emergency evacuation.
出处
《中国应急管理科学》
2022年第12期87-97,共11页
Journal of China Emergency Management Science
关键词
智慧应急
踩踏事件
BP神经网络
人群集聚
仿真
Smart Emergency
Stampedes
BP Neural Network
People Gather Together
Emulation
作者简介
陈娜,北京师范大学政府管理学院博士生。
