摘要
近年来,国内外大型城市节庆假日期间因公众自发性聚集而形成拥挤踩踏的事件时有发生。不同于有组织的传统活动中因管理不善而发生的踩踏,此类事件存在特有的风险累积特点和事态发展规律,值得进行深入分析。本文根据自发性公众聚集踩踏事件可预测、可避免、可减损的三大特点,以及其发生路径的逻辑规律,构建“三段链式进程”分析框架,即事前准备不当造成人群无序的自发聚集,事中因监管不够而形成人群滞留和拥挤堵塞,事发应对不足致使发生踩踏和人员伤亡等后果。在此基础上综合分析“12·31”上海外滩踩踏事件与“10·29”首尔梨泰院踩踏事件,这两起典型踩踏事件的预防预警和应对处置过程,提出防范自发性公众聚集踩踏风险的对策建议。
In recent years,crowds and stampedes caused by spontaneous public gatherings occur frequently during festivals and holidays in domestic and foreign metropolises.Different from stampedes caused by poor management in organized traditional activities,such events have unique characteristics of risk accumulation and development rules,which are worthy of further analysis.In this paper,according to the three characteristics of stampedes caused by spontaneous public gatherings,which are predictable,avoidable and reducible,as well as the logical law of its formation path,a framework of“Three-stage Chained Process”analysis is constructed,that is,improper preparation in advance leads to disordered spontaneous gathering,insufficient supervision leads to crowd detention and congestion during the event,and insufficient response leads to stampede and casualties.On this basis,the prevention,early warning and response processes of two typical stampedes named the“12·31”Shanghai Bund stampede and the“10·29”Seoul Itaewon stampede were comprehensively analyzed here,and countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to prevent the risk of stampedes caused by spontaneous public gatherings.
作者
沈越
曹海峰
Shen Yue;Cao Haifeng
出处
《中国应急管理科学》
2023年第6期100-111,共12页
Journal of China Emergency Management Science
基金
国家社科基金项目“新时代公众安全感与优化政府—公民关系的实证研究”(22CZZ010)
关键词
自发性聚集
踩踏事件
应急管理
公共安全
Spontaneous Gathering
Stampede Events
Emergency Management
Public Security
作者简介
沈越,中共中央党校(国家行政学院)应急管理教研部(中欧应急管理学院)硕士研究生;曹海峰,中共中央党校(国家行政学院)应急管理教研部(中欧应急管理学院)教授、博士生导师。
