迈向农业强国——现代农业产业链供应链的形成驱力、典型路径与收入效应

Toward an Agricultural Powerhouse:Driving Forces,Typical Paths,and Income Effects of Modern Agricultural Industrial Chains and Supply Chains

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摘要打造农业产业链供应链是促进农村产业融合的重要抓手,也是实现乡村全面振兴、迈向农业强国的有力支撑。本文基于2012—2020年全国投入产出表数据,构建以需求价值引领和固定资本投入保障为核心的分析框架,分别刻画了两种驱动模式下农业产业链供应链的延伸路径与上下游关键部门,并评估其作用于农业生产部门的收入效应。研究发现:我国农业部门收入形成主要来自于其面向下游部门中间投入的供给,部分产业部门在产业链供应链中起到核心作用,头部经济效应逐渐放大,其中以农业加工产品部门表现最为突出。农业部门资本要素逐渐丰裕,以“智慧农业”为代表的科技型资本投入规模持续增长。农用物资、农业生产性服务、能源以及交通运输投资对产业链供应链的打造起到关键的保障作用。农业产业链供应链下游的固定资本投入对收入形成的作用效率要显著大于上游,但总体有所下降。本文建议,现代农业产业链供应链的打造应紧扣供需关系变化,充分发挥关键产业部门的“龙头”优势,引领下游延伸方向;持续推进改良投资结构,实现资源优化配置,为产业链供应链提供全过程保障。 Developing agricultural industrial chains and supply chains is of utmost importance for promoting the integration of rural industries,which serves as a crucial driver for achieving rural revitalization in China and moving towards an agricultural powerhouse.Based on the national input-output table data from 2012 to 2020,this study constructs an analytical framework centered on demand value leadering and fixed capital input assurance,illustrating the path of agricultural industrial chains and supply chains,as well as the key sectors involving both upstream and downstream in the two driving models.Additionally,it estimates the income effect on agricultural production sector.The study argues that the income formation of China’s agricultural sector is mainly from its supply of intermediate inputs to the downstream sectors.Moreover,specific industrial sectors play a pivotal role in the industrial chains and supply chains,resulting in a progressively amplified head-economy,where the agricultural product processing industry demonstrates the most remarkable performance.Agricultural capital is becoming more abundant,especially technology capital related to“smart agriculture”.Investments in agricultural materials,agricultural production services,energy,and transportation play a significant role in surpporting the industrial chains and supply chains.The effect of capital input on income formation in the downstream of the agricultural industrial chains and supply chains is significantly greater than that in the upstream,but the overall effect has declined.The study suggests that the development of modern agricultural industrial chains and supply chains should closely align them with changes in supply and demand.It should fully utilize the“leading”advantages of key industrial sectors to steer the downstream path.Additionally,continuous efforts should be made to improve the investment structure in order to achieve optimal resource allocation,which,in turn,provides support for the agricultural industrial chains and supply chains throughout the entire process.

作者罗良清刘钰王亚菲 Luo Liangqing;Liu Yu;Wang Yafei

机构地区江西财经大学统计与数据科学学院中央财经大学统计与数学学院北京师范大学统计学院

出处《统计研究》北大核心 2025年第6期3-20,共18页 Statistical Research

基金国家社会科学基金项目“面向中国式现代化的统计测度基础研究”(22VRC165) 2022年度全国统计科学研究重点项目“乡村振兴进程统计监测评价研究”(2022LZ17)。

关键词农业产业链供应链投入产出分析供需关系固定资本投入 Agricultural Industrial Chains and Supply Chains Input-output Analysis Demand and Supply Capital Inputs

分类号 F323 [经济管理—产业经济]

作者简介罗良清,江西财经大学统计与数据科学学院教授、博士生导师。研究方向为国民经济核算、农业经济学等;通讯作者:刘钰,中央财经大学统计与数学学院助理教授。研究方向为国民经济核算、投入产出分析等。电子邮箱:y.liu1998@qq.com;王亚菲,北京师范大学统计学院教授、博士生导师。研究方向为国民经济核算、投入产出分析等。