摘要
县域经济韧性与乡村全面振兴的协同推进是实现中国现代化“并联式发展”的客观要求。基于critic权重法分别对中国1423个县域2014~2021年的经济韧性与乡村振兴水平进行测度,利用耦合协调度模型、马尔科夫链,考察县域经济韧性与乡村振兴耦合协调的时空动态;利用空间回归模型和时空地理加权模型,分析二者耦合协调度的影响因素并揭示其空间异质性。结果表明:① 两者的耦合协调度在时序上呈稳定上升态势,但各区域空间分异明显,形成“东–中–西”的梯次格局;② 在时空转移特征上,两者耦合协调度的等级转移具有较强的稳定性,且两极分化明显,具有“俱乐部趋同”现象。③ 两者耦合协调度的影响因素存在空间异质性,各县域具有不同的阈值特征和促进机制,县域公路网密度的差异是造成耦合协调度差异的根本原因。
Coordinated advancement of county-level economic resilience and comprehensive rural revitalization is a fundamental requirement for achieving the “parallel development” model of China’s modernization. This study measures economic resilience and rural revitalization levels in 1423 Chinese counties from 2014 to 2021 using the CRITIC weighting method. It applies a coupling coordination degree model and Markov transition matrix to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of their coupling coordination. Additionally, spatial regression and spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression models are employed to identify the key drivers of coupling coordination and reveal its spatial heterogeneity. The results show that: (1) the coupling coordination degree steadily increased over time, but significant spatial disparities formed a clear east-central-west gradient;(2) the grade transitions of coupling coordination demonstrated strong temporal stability and obvious polarization, indicating a “club convergence” effect;(3) the influencing factors exhibit spatial heterogeneity, with counties showing distinct threshold characteristics and promotion mechanisms. Among these factors, variations in county-level road network density emerge as the primary cause of differences in coupling coordination.
出处
《可持续发展》
2025年第7期152-164,共13页
Sustainable Development
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“数字乡村驱动县域城乡融合高质量发展的机理与路径研究”(23BJL115)
湖南省教育厅重点项目“乡村振兴背景下绿色金融对县域经济韧性的作用机理及效应研究”(22A0080)
湖南省研究生科研创新项目“数字乡村与县域经济韧性耦合机制及空间效应研究”(CX20230568)。
