摘要
在健康中国背景下分析我国妇幼健康水平并预测未来趋势,为卫生部门制定妇幼健康政策提供参考。文章基于《中国统计年鉴》数据,选取MMR、NMR、IMR和U5MR指标加以分析,并通过构建GM(1,1)模型进行预测。结果显示:2010~2019年,我国妇幼健康指标呈下降趋势,降幅均在50%左右,城乡差距明显。2020~2025年将继续下降,城乡差距依然存在并呈缩小趋势。表明随着健康中国战略的实施,我国妇幼健康水平不断提升,城乡差距不断缩小。仍要重视城乡差距,发挥政府主导作用,有效提升我国妇幼健康水平。
In the background of Health China, the author analyzes the level of maternal and child health in China and forecasts the future trend, which provides reference for the health department to formulate the policies of women and children health. Based on the data of China Statistical Yearbook, the paper selects MMR, NMR, IMR and U5MR indicators to analyze, and forecasts by building GM(1,1) model. The results show that: from 2010 to 2019, the indicators of maternal and child health in China are declining, with a decrease of about 50%, and the gap between urban and rural areas is obvious. The gap between urban and rural areas will continue to decline from 2020 to 2025, and the gap between urban and rural areas will remain and will be narrowed. It shows that with the implementation of the health China strategy, the health level of women and children in China has been improved and the gap between urban and rural areas is narrowing. We should still pay attention to the gap between urban and rural areas, give full play to the leading role of the government and effectively improve the health level of women and children in China.
出处
《应用数学进展》
2021年第7期2511-2518,共8页
Advances in Applied Mathematics
