摘要
按照实证研究的范式,借鉴新制度经济学有关成果进行评述,提出了相应的理论假说,并构建了一个包含市场化改革在内的经济增长模型,在用中国1981～1999年的有关资料对假说进行计量检验的基础上,运用中国省区之间的横向资料进行了经验检验。结果表明,市场化改革对中国经济增长产生了较大影响,模型中的系数达0 262,且各项系数均通过了相应水平的显著性检验,模型的可决系数为0 998。同时,市场化改革的快慢与区域经济状况有极强的相关性,市场化改革排前10名的省区大多是东部地区,人均GDP排前10名的全部位于东部地区;市场化改革排后10名的省区大多是西部地区,而人均GDP排后10名的省区也大多是西部地区,两者之间具有较好的对应性。因此,要推动中国经济的持续增长,一个重要的方面是继续推进中国的市场化改革,这一点对于市场化改革滞后的西部地区来讲更加重要。
China's marketization reform is substantially a deeply institutional change, that is not exogenous but endogenetic for China's economic growth.According to the patterns of demonstration research,we bring forward a corresponding theoretic hypothesis on base of evaluating the fruit of neo-institutional economics, and set up a model of economic growth including the marketization. Making use of the relevant data of 1981-1999 years of China,we do the measure verifying. At the same time ,we also use the transverse-data among the provinces of China to do the experience verifying. As a result ,marketization reform makes a great effect on the economic growth of China, coefficient in the model amounts to 0.262,and various coefficients all pass the notable verifying on the corresponding level, and the determinable coefficient is 0.998.At one time, there is strong relativity between the speed of marketization reform and the condition of districts, the anterior 10 in the order of the marketization reform are the most of eastern regions, the anterior 10 in the order of per capita GDP are all located in the eastern regions. But the posterior 10 are mostly located in the western areas in the order of the marketization reform and per capita GDP. Both of them have a good correspondence.Therefore, if we want to propel and keep on economic increasing in China, an important aspect is to continuously push forward China's marketization reform.This point is more important for the western region where the marketization reform is lagging.
出处
《山地农业生物学报》
2003年第6期524-531,543,共9页
Journal of Mountain Agriculture and Biology
基金
国家社科基金课题资助项目(01BJL038)
关键词
制度变迁
市场化改革
经济增长
区域经济差异
区域经济增长
institutional change
marketization reform
economic growth
district's economics difference
district's economic growth
