摘要
利用1956—2010年南盘江流域径流系列,通过从不同时段的时间尺度和流域上、中、下游和全流域的空间尺度上,系统地研究了流域天然的水资源演变特征。经Kendall检验和R/S分析,流域年径流量存在不显著的减少趋势,且这种趋势具有一定的持续性。通过Morlet小波分析表明,流域年径流系列分别存在12、20、3 a的周期变化。这种变化可能与海-气相互作用及太阳活动有关。针对流域年径流减少的趋势给流域经济社会的可持续发展带来的不利影响,提出流域应加强节水型社会建设,加快滇中引水等外流域调水工程建设等对策建议,为流域水资源开发利用和管理决策提供科学依据。
The evolution characteristics of natural water resources were systematically studied with data of Nan Pan River basin runoff series in 1956—2010 years from different periods of time scale and the spatial scales. Kendall test and R/S analysis shows there is no significant reduction trend of annual runoff in the basin, and this trend has a certain continuity. Morlet wavelet analysis shows that the annual runoff series in the basin has periodical evolution of 12 years, 20 years and 3 years. This change may be related to the sea air interaction and solar activity. For the the adverse effects caused by the trend of decrease in the annual runoff of the basin to the sustainable development of economy and society in the basin, counter measures and suggestions have been figured out that the basin should strengthen the development of water-saving society, accelerate Yunnan water diversion and other external basin diversion water project construction. This provides a scientific basis for the basin water resources development and utilization and management decision.
出处
《人民珠江》
2016年第8期10-14,共5页
Pearl River
