摘要
根据2010年第六次全国人口普查数据,全国丧偶老年人口4774万人,占老年人口的26.89%。老年女性丧偶的概率明显大于男性,随着老年人口年龄的增加,丧偶率的差距也明显扩大。丧偶率的差别从10%以内,提高到35%以上。以1990、2000、2010年全国普查数据及2005年1%原始抽样数据为基础,采用人口宏观随机模型以及生命表方法,预测得到2010-2050年我国丧偶老年人口的总量和结构。预测结果表明,2010-2050年我国丧偶老年人口的总量将继续快速增长,到2050年达到11840万人,是2010年的2.5倍。2010-2050年女性丧偶老年人口始终占到丧偶老人的80%以上,突显了未来我国女性老年人口问题的严重性。
According to the 2010 sixth national population census data,China's widowed elderly population reaches 47.74 million,accounting for 26.89%.The elderly women's probability of widowed is significantly higher than elderly men.With the increasing age of elderly population,the expansion of widowed rate gap is obvious.The gap of widowed rate almost increased from 10%to 35%.Based on the national census data in 1990,2000,2010 and the 1%original sampling data in 2005,using population macroscopic stochastic model and the life table method,this paper forecasts the quantity and structure of China'swidowed elderly population in 2010-2050.The results show that China's widowed elderly population will continue to grow rapidly.It is expected to reach 118.4 million by 2050,that is 2.5 times larger than that of 2010.In addition,women are still accounted for more than 80%of widowed elderly population in 2010-2050.It also highlights the severity of elderly women's problem in the next few decades.
出处
《老龄科学研究》
2013年第1期44-55,共12页
Scientific Research on Aging
关键词
老年人口
婚姻家庭
丧偶
预测
elderly population
marriage and family
widowed
forecast
