摘要
低碳城市试点政策是助力“双碳”目标和推动可持续发展的重要举措,黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展对中国生态安全、经济发展和社会稳定具有重要的战略意义。该研究基于2006-2019年黄河流域7大城市群58个地级及以上城市的数据,测算分析了黄河流域城市群绿色全要素生产率,并将低碳城市试点政策作为一项准自然实验,运用多期双重差分方法研究低碳城市试点政策对黄河流域城市群城市绿色全要素生产率的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明:①黄河流域城市群的绿色全要素生产率整体上呈波动上升趋势;②低碳城市试点政策显著促进了试点城市绿色全要素生产率水平的提升,并且通过了稳健性检验;③低碳城市试点政策能够通过能源消费强度和绿色金融投资显著提升黄河流域城市群城市的绿色全要素生产率水平,但现阶段会抑制绿色技术创新和产业结构高级化水平,从而阻碍试点城市绿色全要素生产率水平的提升;④低碳城市试点政策在黄河流域下游城市群、大气污染防治重点区域的促进作用更加明显。该研究结果有助于明确黄河流域城市群绿色发展现状及潜力,为提升黄河流域绿色发展效率、促进黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展提供客观依据和参考,对黄河流域调整“双碳”布局,协调经济发展与碳排放关系,推动“双碳”目标如期实现具有重要的现实意义。
The low-carbon city pilot policy is an important measure for achieving the“dual carbon”goals and promoting sustainable development.Ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin are of strategic significance to China's ecological security,economic development,and social stability.Based on data from 58 prefecture-level cities in seven major urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin from 2006 to 2019,this study measured and analyzed the green total factor productivity(GTFP)of urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin.Taking the low-carbon city pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment,the study used a multi-period difference-in-differences method to examine the impact and mechanisms of the low-carbon city pilot policy on the GTFP of cities in the Yellow River Basin urban agglomerations.The results showed that:①The GTFP of urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin exhibited a fluctuating upward trend overall.②The low-carbon city pilot policy significantly promoted the improvement of the GTFP levels in pilot cities and passed the robustness test.③The low-carbon city pilot policy significantly affected the GTFP of the pilot cities in the Yellow River Basin urban agglomerations through energy consumption intensity mechanism and green financial investment,but at this stage,it could inhibit green technology innovation and the updating of industrial structure to an advanced level,thus hindering the improvement of GTFP in pilot cities.④The promotion effect of the low-carbon city pilot policy was more pronounced in the urban agglomerations and key areas of air pollution prevention and control in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.The results of this study are helpful to clarify the current status and development potential of the green development of urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin,provide an objective basis and reference for improving the green development efficiency of the Yellow River Basin,and promote the ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.It is of great practical significance for the Yellow River Basin to adjust the layout of the“dual carbon”goals,coordinate the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions,and promote the realization of the‘dual carbon’goal as scheduled.
作者
包玉香
朱贵增
BAO Yuxiang;ZHU Guizeng(School of Economics,Shandong Normal University,Jinan Shandong 250014,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
北大核心
2025年第8期134-143,共10页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国农村要素市场扭曲测度与应对措施研究”(批准号:20BJL082)。
关键词
低碳城市试点政策
黄河流域城市群
绿色全要素生产率
多期双重差分
low‑carbon city pilot policy
Yellow River Basin urban agglomeration
green total factor productivity
multi‑period difference‑in‑differences method
作者简介
包玉香,博士,教授,主要研究方向为人力资本与区域经济发展。E-mail:baoyuxiang@126.com。
