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2024年北流荔枝大减产气象成因分析及对策

Meteorological Analysis of the Heavy Yield Decrease in Litchi in 2024 in Beiliu and Countermeasures
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摘要 分析气象条件对荔枝生长的影响,为指导荔枝生产趋利避害和农业气象服务提供科学依据,促进荔枝稳产丰产。结合2023—2024年度气象数据分析和实地调查,分析气象因子对荔枝花芽分化、成花和坐果的影响。数据分析表明,在2023年12月到次年2月,较长的气温异常偏高过程和较短的低温过程交替出现,末次低温时段较常年明显偏迟;气温偏高时段荔枝冲梢严重、消耗大量树体养分,低温总日数偏少使荔枝缺乏低温积累,不利于荔枝花芽分化,末次低温时段滞后抑制花穗发育。低温积累不足、末次低温过程滞后和阶段性气温偏高使荔枝冲梢严重、成花率低,是造成荔枝大减产的主要原因。将气象服务和控梢促花、花芽分化科学管理结合,提高荔枝成花率,促使荔枝稳产丰产。 The influence of meteorological factors on the growth of litchi was studied to provide a scientific basis for the management of litchi and agricultural meteorological services.Based on the data of the meteorology observed from 2023 to 2024,the impact of meteorological factors on flower bud differentiation,flowering,and fruit setting was analyzed.The results revealed that longer,abnormally high-temperature processes and shorter low-temperature processes alternated,and the final low-temperature process occurred significantly later than usual,from December 2023 to February 2024.Prolonged abnormally high temperatures induce flushing of shoots,leading to excessive nutrient consumption.The total number of days under low temperatures was lower than normal,resulting in a lack of low-temperature accumulation,which was detrimental to flower bud differentiation.The development of flower spikes was inhibited by the lag of the final low-temperature process.The main reasons for the heavy yield decrease in litchi in 2024 were insufficient accumulation of low-temperature light,delayed final low-temperature processing,and stage high-temperature processing,which led to flower branch shooting and a low flowering rate.By combining meteorological services and scientific management of flower bud differentiation and controlling shoots to promote flowers,we can increase the flowering rate and get stable and high yields of litchi.
作者 宁宁 李振宇 陈利东 NING Ning;LI Zhenyu;CHEN Lidong(Beiliu Meteorological Bureau,Beiliu,Guangxi 537400,China;Yulin Meteorological Bureau,Yulin,Guangxi 537000,China)
出处 《热带农业科学》 2025年第8期82-87,共6页 Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture
关键词 荔枝 花芽分化 低温 末次低温过程 litchi flower bud differentiation low-temperature final low-temperature process
作者简介 第一作者:宁宁(1977-),男,本科,高级工程师,主要研究方向为综合气象业务与农业气象服务工作,E-mail:ningn88@163.com。
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