摘要
近年来欧盟对华经贸政策经历了从“加强合作”到“去风险”的演变。基于科普兰关于相互依赖的贸易预期理论,本研究分析了这一演变的原因和发展路径。去风险是大国对彼此贸易预期表示悲观的一种政策选择。它对国家间经济相互依赖的削弱以及由此产生的“贸易—安全困境”,可能导致冲突性的贸易后果。根据贸易预期理论的分析框架,本研究分析了欧盟对华贸易政策演变的互动因素、外源性因素和内源性因素,指出第三方国家因素和欧盟部分势力的推动是欧盟去风险政策产生的主要原因。中欧需要创造双方贸易的乐观预期,回到加强合作的正确道路上来。
In recent years,the EU s trade policy toward China has evolved from a stance of“strengthening cooperation”to one of“de-risking.”Based on Dale Copeland s theory of trade expectations regarding interdependence,this paper analyzes the reasons and development path of this policy shift.De-risking represents a policy choice rooted in pessimistic expectations regarding future trade relations between major powers.It may weaken economic interdependence and exacerbate the“trade-security dilemma,”potentially leading to conflicting trade outcomes.Using the analytical framework of trade expectations theory,this paper examines the interactive,exogenous,and endogenous factors influencing the EU s trade policy shift.It identifies third-party countries and the internal push from certain factions within the EU as the primary drivers behind the de-risking policy.This paper argues that China and the EU need to rebuild optimistic expectations about their trade relationship and return to the correct path of strengthening cooperation.
出处
《上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第9期34-46,60,共14页
Journal of Shanghai Jiao tong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
关键词
相互依赖
中欧关系
贸易预期
去风险
interdependence
Sino-EU relations
trade expectations
de-risking
作者简介
李明明,上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院副教授(上海,200030)。
