摘要
天然气市场是能源市场中重要的一部分,其在2021—2023年期间发生重大变化,能源市场随之改变,本文运用复杂网络的方法讨论了2021—2023年期间全球天然气市场结构的变化。第一,构建2021—2023年期间市场网络,利用Topsis模型与社团分析模型对这期间的天然气市场结构的演化过程进行了仿真,计算了复杂网络各节点的重要性排名和社团成员,反应这期间市场结构变化。第二,利用抗毁性评估模型对市场网络进行随机和蓄意的攻击,通过计算攻击后连通效率和最大连通子图等指标衡量攻击对网络造成的影响,以此反应市场结构的稳定性变化。研究结果表明:(1)在此期间,从以欧洲为主导向着区域多中心发展,各地区之间竞争激烈。美国保持液化天然气市场的龙头地位,欧洲的地位总体有所下降,非洲、中东等新兴市场崛起。(2)俄罗斯社团被拆分,液化天然气选择与亚洲加深合作但社团规模仍持续缩小,管道天然气社团被拆分但后有所恢复。美国社团不断扩张并保持这一趋势。(3)天然气市场结构在此期间稳定性先降低,后恢复稳定,未来的天然气市场结构将持续变化但变化幅度有所减小。
The natural gas market is a key component of the global energy market,and significant changes in the natural gas market during the 2021–2023 period also affected the global energy market.This study discusses changes in the structure of the global natural gas market during the 2021–2023 period using the complex networks method.First,the market network was constructed for the 2021–2023 period,and the evolution of the natural gas market structure during the period was simulated using the Topsis model and the association analysis model.The importance ranking of each node of the complex network and the membership of the associations were calculated to observe reactions to the changes in the market structure during the period.Second,the market network was shocked randomly and intentionally using the destructive evaluation model,and the impact of the shock on the network was assessed by calculating indicators,such as connectivity efficiency and maximum connectivity subgraph after the shock,which reflected change in market structure stability.The results of the study show the following:(1)During the period,the market developed from a predominantly European orientation toward regional polycentricity,with intense competition between regions.The U.S.maintained its leading position in the liquified natural gas(LNG)market,Europe’s position generally declined,and emerging markets,such as Africa and the Middle East rose.(2)The Russian association was split up,LNG chose to deepen cooperation with Asia,however,the association shrank gradually and the pipeline gas association was split up;it has since recovered.The U.S.community has continued to expand and maintain this trend.(3)The stability of the natural gas market structure first declined and then stabilized during the period under study,and the natural gas market structure will continue to change in future;however,the magnitude of the change will decrease.
作者
赵宇
王琨
张艳飞
陈其慎
管青
龙涛
任鑫
商铖红
于起
ZHAO Yu;WANG Kun;ZHANG Yanfei;CHEN Qishen;GUAN Qing;LONG Tao;REN Xin;SHANG Chenghong;YU Qi(Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037;School of Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083)
出处
《地球学报》
北大核心
2025年第5期979-990,共12页
Acta Geoscientica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:4227012037)
深地国家科技重大专项(编号:2024ZD1002000)
中国地质调查局地质调查二级项目(编号:DD20230040)联合资助。
关键词
天然气
市场结构
复杂网络
大数据分析
图形数据社区发现
natural gas
market structure
complex networks
big data analytics
graphical data community discovery
作者简介
第一作者:赵宇,男,2001年生。硕士研究生。主要从事矿产资源经济等方面的研究工作。E-mail:m17561919870@163.com;通信作者:王琨,女,1985年生。博士,正高级工程师。主要从事数学地质、矿产资源大数据、资源产业经济方面的研究。E-mail:wkun1111@163.com。
