摘要
后冷战时代,美国对外政策的调整始终是影响中俄关系的重要外部因素。基于所谓的“中俄威胁论”“有限和解论”和“中国首要威胁论”三重战略认知,特朗普政府试图通过调整美国对俄政策,缓和美俄关系,进而离间中俄关系,构建对美有利的新战略平衡。分析发现,特朗普政府分化中俄关系的战略意愿与实施能力存在明显错位,其具体实践受制于目标设定不够合理、美俄互信严重缺失、拉拢俄罗斯的工具效能有限、国内反俄势力依旧强大以及美乌欧分歧尚未消弭等因素,短期内难以改变美国在中美俄三角关系中的不利处境。现阶段,虽然俄罗斯将特朗普再度执政视为缓和美俄关系、管控乌克兰危机的机会窗口,但其无意牺牲中俄关系来换取美国充满不确定性的承诺。出于现实利益和长远战略考量,俄罗斯将持续深化对华务实合作,加强中俄两国在国际事务中的战略协作,进一步巩固中俄新时代全面战略协作伙伴关系。面对风云变幻的国际形势,中国要保持战略定力,做到审时度势、统筹兼顾,有效管控美国因素对中俄关系的负面影响,推动中俄关系长期稳定健康发展,在助力两国共同发展振兴的同时,坚定做动荡世界中的稳定力量。
In the post-Cold War era,any adjustment to the U.S.foreign policy has always been a significant external factor affecting Sino-Russian relations.Based on the three strategic cognitions of“China-Russia threat theory”,“limited reconciliation theory”and“China’s primary threat theory”,the Trump administration has made all efforts to ease U.S.-Russia relations by adjusting the U.S.policy toward Russia,thereby driving a wedge between China and Russia and restoring a new strategic balance that would serve U.S.primacy.The analysis argues that there is an obvious misalignment between the Trump administration’s strategic intention and ability to divide Sino-Russian relations.Its specific practice is constrained by factors such as unrealistic goal setting,serious lack of mutual trust between Washington and Moscow,limited effectiveness of tools to draw Russia in,the existence of strong anti-Russian forces at home,and unresolved differences between the United States,Ukraine and Europe.Due to this,it will be difficult to change the unfavorable situation of the United States in the U.S.-China-Russia triangle in the short term.Currently,although Russia views Trump’s re-election as an opportunity to ease U.S.-Russia relations and possibly manage the escalating crisis in Ukraine,it has no intention of sacrificing Sino-Russian relations in exchange for the uncertain promises of the United States.Out of practical interests and long-term strategic considerations,Russia will continue to deepen practical cooperation with China,strengthen strategic consultation between the sides in international affairs,and further consolidate the comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation between China and Russia in the new era.Faced with the ever-changing international situation,China must maintain strategic determination,judge the situation,make overall plans,effectively control the negative impact of the U.S.factor on Sino-Russian relations,promote the long-term stable and sound development of bilateral relations,and firmly be a stabilizing force in a turbulent world while pushing the two countries to develop and revitalize together.
作者
金灿荣
刘朋奇
Jin Canrong;Liu Pengqi
出处
《国际论坛》
北大核心
2025年第5期3-20,155,共19页
International Forum
关键词
特朗普2.0
中俄关系
美国因素
乌克兰危机
战略变革期
Trump 2.0
China-Russia relations
The U.S.Factor
Ukraine Crisis
Strategic Transition period
作者简介
金灿荣,中国人民大学国际关系学院教授;刘朋奇,中国人民大学国际关系学院2024级博士研究生(北京邮编:100872)。
