摘要
[目的]系统分析不同碳排放情景下中国及各省的土地利用时空变化特征,旨在为制定区域性土地利用规划和应对气候变化政策及中国未来土地利用规划和可持续发展提供数据支持和理论依据。[方法]基于2015―2100年的土地利用数据,结合土地利用转移矩阵和动态度指标,分析中国土地利用的时空变化特征。[结果]①在SSP126(低碳排放)和SSP245(中等碳排放)情景下,耕地、建设用地和未利用地总体呈增加趋势,草地和林地减少,其中草地减少最为显著;SSP585(高碳排放)情景下,耕地、草地和建设用地增加,林地和未利用地大幅减少。土地利用转移方面,林地转为耕地和草地,未利用地与草地转化最为频繁。②2015―2030年,土地利用变化最为剧烈,SSP585情景下动态度最高,主要表现为草地和未利用地转为耕地与建设用地。③2030―2060年,变化幅度减小,西部地区变化较平稳,SSP245情景下四川、甘肃和黑龙江等省份的变化趋于稳定。④2060―2100年,气候变化影响减弱,变化总面积显著减少,特别是在SSP585情景下,西部省份变化仍较为明显,而东部省份变化趋缓。[结论]中国的土地利用变化将受到碳排放情景、区域经济发展与城市化进程的影响,呈现显著的时空异质性和区域差异性。
[Objective]The spatiotemporal change characteristics of land use in China and each province under different carbon emission scenarios were systematically analyzed,in order to provide data support and theoretical basis for formulating regional land use planning and policies to cope with climate change,as well as future land use planning and sustainable development in China.[Methods]Based on land use data from 2015 to 2100,combined with land use transfer matrix and dynamic attitude index,this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use change in China.[Results]①Under SSP126(low carbon emission)and SSP245(medium carbon emission)scenarios,cultivated land,construction land and unused land showed an overall increase trend,while grassland and forest land decreased,and grassland decreased most significantly.Under the SSP585(high carbon emission)scenario,cultivated land,grassland and construction land increase,while forest land and unused land decrease significantly.In terms of land use transfer,forest land was converted into cultivated land and grassland,and unused land and grassland were converted most frequently.②From 2015 to 2030,the land use change is the most drastic,and the dynamic attitude under the SSP585 scenario is the highest,which is mainly manifested as the conversion of grassland and unused land into cultivated land and construction land.③From 2030 to 2060,the change amplitude decreases,and the change in the western region is relatively stable,and the change in Sichuan,Gansu and Heilongjiang provinces tends to be stable under the SSP245 scenario.④From 2060 to 2100,the impact of climate change will weaken,and the total change area will decrease significantly.Especially under the SSP585 scenario,the change of western provinces is still more obvious,while the change of eastern regions will slow down.[Conclusion]China’s land use change would be affected by carbon emission scenario,regional economic development and urbanization process,showing significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity and regional differences.
作者
刘靖
毋冰龙
王红雷
韦革宏
Liu Jing;Wu Binglong;Wang Honglei;Wei Gehong(The Research Center of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Education,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;College of Soil and Water Conservation Science and Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;College of Life Sciences,Northwest A&F University,State Key Laboratory of Crop Stress Resistance and High-Efficiency Production,Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Environmental Microorganism,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China)
出处
《水土保持通报》
北大核心
2025年第4期233-243,共11页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家重点研发计划重点专项青年科学家项目“西北旱区中低产田土壤质量提升的功能微生物组挖掘与产品设计”(2021YFD1900500)。
关键词
土地利用变化
动态度
转移矩阵
时空特征
中国
land use change
dynamic degree
transfer matrix
spatiotemporal characteristics
China
作者简介
第一作者:刘靖(1998-),女(汉族),山西省吕梁市人,硕士研究生,研究方向为作物产能与土壤健康。Email:liujing221@mails.ucas.ac.cn;通信作者:王红雷(1983-),男(汉族),河南省永城市人,博士,研究员,主要从事土壤地力提升与生态修复的研究。Email:wanghonglei@nwsuaf.edu.cn。
