摘要
相较于其他机器及技术进步,人工智能的最大特征在于其对人的脑力劳动以至于“人”本身的替代。限于就业劳动力总量所形成的有效需求数量,人工智能产业的发展具有动态收敛特征,它决定了人工智能可能存在静态市场边界、其市场化进程及发展速度可能会低于人们的预期,进而导致其产业发展范式与以电动汽车为代表的上一代战略性新兴产业不同。从产业政策角度看,政策引导的重点应放在加快技术进步,而不能将放在快速引导产业规模扩张上,只需要保持产业发展保持适度领先即可。在政策建议方面,应准确定位人工智能、处理好人工智能技术进步与人工智能产业发展之间的关系等。
Compared to other machines and technological advancements,the biggest feature of artificial intelligence is its ability to replace human mental labor and even the"human"itself.Due to the limited effective demand formed by the total employment of labor force,the development of the artificial intelligence industry has dynamic convergence characteristics,which determine that artificial intelligence may have static market boundaries,and its marketization process and development speed may be lower than people′s expectations,leading to a different industrial development paradigm from the previous generation of strategic emerging industries represented by electric vehicles.From the perspective of industrial policy,the focus of policy guidance should be on accelerating technological progress,rather than on rapidly guiding industrial scale expansion.It is only necessary to maintain a moderate leading position in the industrial development.In terms of policy recommendations,it is necessary to accurately position artificial intelligence and handle the relationship between the progress of artificial intelligence technology and the development of the artificial intelligence industry.
作者
曾宪奎
ZENG Xiankui(Academy of Marxism,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;School of Marxism,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)
出处
《北京工业大学学报(社会科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第5期42-52,共11页
Journal of Beijing University of Technology (Social Sciences Edition)
关键词
人工智能
动态收敛性
替代效应
鲍莫尔成本病
artificial intelligence
dynamic convergence
substitution effect
Baumol′s cost disease
作者简介
曾宪奎(1977-),男,中国社会科学院马克思主义研究院研究员,中国社会科学院大学马克思主义学院教授,博士生导师。
