基于三段论关系结构的水资源安全风险评价方法探讨

Exploration of Water Resources Security Risk Assessment Method Based on Syllogism Relationship Structure

在线阅读下载PDF

导出

摘要水资源安全风险评价是沟通水资源安全风险理论认识与防御实践的桥梁,科学、合理、有效的水资源安全风险评价方法研究一直是水资源安全风险防御理论和实践研究领域中的前沿和难点。在分析由水资源安全致险因子危险性、孕险环境孕险性、抗险措施抗险性、承险体脆弱性和水资源安全损失风险5个子系统及其指标作用关系形成的区域水资源安全风险传导关系结构基础上,系统梳理了评价目标、评价对象、评价指标集、评价指标测度的确定,定性指标定量化,单指标评价函数、评价指标权重和综合指标评价函数的确定以及评价结果的合理性分析等区域水资源安全风险评价方法实现过程中存在的问题。评价方法系统要素中评价对象a、评价指标b和评价目标c分别对应亚里士多德三段论逻辑结构中的小项、中项和大项,由评价对象和评价指标组成的评价论据关系ab、评价指标和评价目标组成的评价论证关系bc、评价对象和评价目标组成的评价结果关系ac,分别对应亚里士多德三段论逻辑关系结构中的小前提、大前提和结论关系,区域水资源安全风险评价方法的底层逻辑就是完整的亚里士多德三段论的逻辑推理过程,评价论据关系ab、评价论证关系bc和评价结果关系ac组成了该逻辑推理过程的三段论关系结构。通过ab与bc的关系合成作用ac=ab@bc,既可实现三段论推理、得到评价结果关系ac,进行水资源安全风险评价实证分析,又可检验评价结果的合理性,形成水资源安全风险评价过程的计划-执行-检查-处理戴明循环。通过不断更新、完善评价方法,可为不断深化上述基于三段论关系结构的区域水资源安全风险评价方法研究提供普适的研究途径,在资源环境风险评价及其他相关评价方法构建中具有推广应用价值。 Regional water resources security risk assessment serves as a bridge between the theoretical understanding and defensive practices of regional water resources security risk.The research on scientific,reasonable,and effective water resources security risk assessment meth⁃ods has consistently been a frontier and difficult point in the field of water resources security risk defense theory and practice.On the basis of analyzing the transmission relationship structure of regional water resources security risk formed by the interaction of subsystems and their in⁃dicators of water resources security risk factors,pregnancy risk environment,risk resistance measures,vulnerability of risk bearing bodies and water resources security loss risk,the system had sorted out the determination of evaluation objectives,evaluation objects,evaluation in⁃dicator sets,evaluation indicator measurements,quantification of qualitative indicators,determination of single indicator evaluation functions,evaluation indicator weights,and comprehensive indicator evaluation functions,as well as the rationality analysis of evaluation re⁃sults in the implementation of regional water resources security risk evaluation methods.Among them,the evaluation object a,evaluation in⁃dex b and evaluation target c in the evaluation method system elements could correspond to the small,medium and large items in the logical structure of Aristotle’s syllogism respectively.The evaluation evidence relationship ab composed of evaluation objects and evaluation indica⁃tors,the evaluation argument relationship bc composed of evaluation indicators and evaluation objectives,and the evaluation result relation⁃ship ac composed of evaluation objects and evaluation objectives correspond to the small premise,large premise,and conclusion relationships in the logical relationship structure of Aristotle’s syllogism respectively.It could be seen that the underlying logic of the risk assessment method for regional water resources security was a complete logical reasoning process of Aristotle’s syllogism.The syllogism relationship structure of the logical reasoning process was composed of the evaluation evidence relationship ab,evaluation argument relationship bc,and evaluation result relationship ac.Synthesis of relation ac through composition of relations between ab and bc,expressed as“ac=ab@bc”.It could achieve syllogism reasoning,obtain the relationship between evaluation results,conduct empirical analysis of water resources security risk assessment,and verify the rationality of the evaluation results,forming a Plan⁃Do⁃Check⁃Act(PDCA)Deming cycle in the process of water resources security risk assessment,continuously updating and improving evaluation methods,which could provide a universal research approach for continuously deepening the research on regional water resources security risk assessment methods,and also had important refer⁃ence value in the general modeling ideas of resources and environmental risk assessment methods.

作者金菊良周亮广吴成国周戎星崔毅白夏 JIN Juliang;ZHOU Liangguang;WU Chengguo;ZHOU Rongxing;CUI Yi;BAI Xia(College of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resourcess and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;School of Environment and Energy Engineering,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China;College of Civil Engineering,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所安徽建筑大学环境与能源工程学院安徽建筑大学土木工程学院

出处《人民黄河》北大核心 2025年第9期62-69,共8页 Yellow River

基金国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2240223,52409001,52209012) 安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(2208085US03,2408085ME135)。

关键词水资源安全风险评价方法建模方法三段论关系结构 PDCA戴明循环 water resources security risk assessment method modeling method syllogism relationship structure plan⁃do⁃check⁃act Deming cycle

分类号 TV213.4 [水利工程—水文学及水资源]

作者简介金菊良(1966-),男,江苏苏州人,教授,博士,研究方向为结构水资源学;通信作者:吴成国(1982-),男,甘肃民乐人,副教授,博士,研究方向为水资源系统工程,E-mail:wule9825@163.com。